Türkiye's Wheat Sector: Key to Food Security & Trade

Agriculture remains a cornerstone of Türkiye's economy, serving as a strategic sector critical for ensuring food security and sustaining the nation’s population. With a rich agricultural heritage and a diet heavily reliant on grain-based products, wheat plays a particularly vital role in Türkiye’s agricultural landscape. As both a staple food and a strategic commodity, wheat underpins food security, self-sufficiency, and the broader agricultural economy. In an era marked by increasing food nationalism, trade restrictions, and supply chain disruptions, Türkiye’s ability to meet its domestic wheat demand is more crucial than ever. Ensuring stable wheat production strengthens not only national food security but also the country’s resilience to global market fluctuations.

Türkiye’s agricultural sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience and consistent growth, reflecting the nation’s commitment to sustaining this critical industry. In 2023, Türkiye ranked first in Europe and among the top ten globally in agricultural output, with a total production value of $69.2 billion. This achievement highlights Türkiye’s position as one of the world’s self-sufficient agricultural nations. Further underscoring this strength, the country achieved a record agricultural export value of $31 billion in 2023, contributing to a total foreign trade surplus of $6.9 billion. These figures emphasize the sector’s growing contribution to the national economy, reinforcing Türkiye’s role as a key player in global agricultural markets.

As global uncertainties continue to challenge food supply chains, Türkiye’s agricultural policies must focus on strengthening domestic production, investing in sustainable farming practices, and enhancing trade partnerships. By prioritizing innovation, resource efficiency, and modernized agricultural infrastructure, Türkiye can maintain its leadership position and continue to ensure food security for future generations.

Wheat Production and Food Security

Wheat remains a cornerstone of Türkiye's agricultural sector, playing a crucial role in national food security and economic stability. The year 2023 marked a significant milestone in the country’s grain production, with total grain output reaching 42.2 million tons—an impressive 9% increase compared to the previous year. Of this, wheat production accounted for 22 million tons, while corn production reached 9 million tons. This steady growth reflects the successful integration of government policies, technological innovations, and the collective efforts of farmers, producer organizations, and private sector stakeholders.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry has placed a strong emphasis on sustainability, quality, and productivity, supporting the sector with targeted investments and modernization initiatives. Efforts to promote efficient irrigation systems, climate-resilient crop varieties, and precision farming technologies have contributed to increased yields and better resource management. Additionally, government-backed support programs, such as subsidies and credit facilities, have provided farmers with financial security and incentives to adopt sustainable practices.

However, challenges remain, particularly in stabilizing farmer incomes and addressing structural inefficiencies within the agricultural sector. Price volatility, input costs, and climate-related risks continue to impact producers, highlighting the need for well-planned, stable production systems. Strengthening cooperative models, improving market access, and implementing long-term policies that balance production with demand will be crucial in ensuring continued growth and resilience in Türkiye’s wheat industry. By fostering collaboration and innovation, the sector can overcome obstacles and maintain its critical role in the country’s economy and food security.

Strategic Planning and Future Outlook

Türkiye has launched an ambitious production planning initiative for the 2024–2025 period, focusing on 13 strategic agricultural products, including wheat and corn. This initiative is designed to enhance productivity, strengthen food security, and ensure sustainable agricultural development. To oversee and implement this effort effectively, specialized committees and commissions have been established at both central and provincial levels, enabling a coordinated and data-driven approach to agricultural planning.

A key component of this initiative is the introduction of legislative measures that address fundamental challenges within the agricultural sector. One such measure is the promotion of contracted agriculture, which provides farmers with financial security by guaranteeing the purchase of their produce at predetermined prices. This approach not only stabilizes farmer incomes but also ensures a steady supply of essential crops. Additionally, the government has prioritized bringing idle and underutilized lands into production, thereby expanding the country’s agricultural capacity and reducing dependence on imports.

Enhancing support mechanisms is another crucial aspect of this initiative. Increased subsidies, access to credit, and investment in modern farming techniques are being provided to help farmers improve efficiency and resilience against external shocks such as climate change and market fluctuations. By aligning production planning with these support tools, Türkiye aims to create a more structured and predictable agricultural sector that benefits both farmers and the broader economy. These measures will contribute to greater self-sufficiency, higher productivity, and long-term sustainability in the country’s agricultural landscape.

Türkiye's Role in Global Wheat Trade

Türkiye's geographical position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia makes it a crucial player in the global wheat trade, serving as both a major processor and exporter of wheat-based products. In 2023, Türkiye solidified its status as the world’s largest flour exporter, shipping 3.7 million tons of flour to international markets. Beyond flour, the country has made impressive strides in exporting wheat-derived industrial products, including 1.35 million tons of pasta, 300,000 tons of bulgur, and 522,000 tons of biscuits. These exports collectively represent the processing of approximately 7.5–8.0 million tons of wheat, underscoring Türkiye’s pivotal role as a global wheat processing hub.

The disruption of global wheat markets following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war posed significant challenges for food security worldwide. However, Türkiye’s strategic trade policies and logistical advantages have allowed it to maintain stability in grain markets. By ensuring a consistent supply of wheat-based products, Türkiye has not only safeguarded its own food security but also supported grain-importing nations that rely on its processed exports.

Türkiye’s ability to navigate market disruptions is further bolstered by its investment in infrastructure, modern milling technology, and strong trade relationships. The country’s wheat-processing sector continues to attract global demand, reinforcing its position as a leading supplier of value-added grain products. Moving forward, Türkiye aims to strengthen its trade partnerships, enhance production efficiency, and expand its reach in international markets, ensuring continued growth and stability in the global wheat trade.

State Support and Market Dynamics

The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) plays a critical role in Türkiye’s wheat production and trade, ensuring market stability and food security. In 2023, TMO made a historic purchase of 13.1 million tons of wheat, a strategic move to balance domestic supply and demand. Of this quantity, approximately 40% was allocated to strategic reserves, reinforcing Türkiye’s preparedness against potential supply disruptions. By actively managing grain stocks, TMO helps stabilize prices and protect both producers and consumers from market volatility.

Despite these efforts, global market dynamics pose challenges. The Black Sea Basin, particularly Russia and Ukraine, continues to influence wheat prices, offering lower rates due to high production levels and aggressive export strategies. As of 2023, Black Sea wheat was priced at $220–$230 per ton (excluding freight), while barley and corn ranged between $190–$200 per ton. These competitive prices create difficulties for Türkiye’s domestic market, where production costs tend to be higher.

Furthermore, unforeseen weather events have impacted global supply. Recent frost in Russia and drought conditions in key wheat-producing regions have forced Russia to revise its 2024 wheat production forecast downward from 93 million tons to 83 million tons. Meanwhile, geopolitical factors such as Europe’s imposition of tariffs on Russian imports and China’s new policies to curb wheat and corn imports add further complexity. In response, Türkiye must continue refining its grain policies, strengthening its trade strategies, and ensuring its agricultural sector remains competitive in an evolving global market.

Conclusion

Türkiye’s wheat sector plays a crucial role in both domestic food security and global trade, underpinned by strategic policies, resilient production capabilities, and a well-developed processing industry. As a key agricultural commodity, wheat not only sustains the nation’s dietary needs but also supports economic growth through exports of flour and wheat-based products. The government’s proactive measures, including production planning initiatives, legislative reforms, and enhanced farmer support, have strengthened the sector’s stability and long-term sustainability. Investments in modern agricultural technologies and irrigation infrastructure have contributed to increasing yields and improving resource efficiency.

Despite these advancements, Türkiye faces challenges arising from volatile global markets, climate risks, and geopolitical disruptions. The Russia-Ukraine war, fluctuations in international wheat prices, and evolving trade policies require Türkiye to continuously adapt its strategies to maintain competitiveness. By reinforcing its position as a major wheat processor and exporter, Türkiye can further leverage its geographic advantages and trade partnerships to secure its role in global grain markets.

Looking ahead, continued investment in innovation, sustainable farming, and strategic trade policies will be essential for Türkiye to navigate future uncertainties. By fostering collaboration among farmers, policymakers, and industry stakeholders, the country can ensure food security, economic resilience, and sustained growth in its wheat sector for years to come.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

Mithat Direk is serving the Department of Agricultural Economics, Selcuk University, Konya-Türkiye.

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