Türkiye's Resilient Agricultural Sector Amidst Russia-Ukraine war

In the late 18th century, economist Thomas Robert Malthus theorized that population growth would outpace food production, leading to widespread food scarcity. His controversial model suggested that while population expands geometrically, food production grows arithmetically, inevitably creating shortages. This concept, though debated extensively, finds echoes today in discussions surrounding global food security.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has reignited these concerns, particularly in nations like Türkiye that rely on agricultural imports from these countries. Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of wheat, sunflower oil, and other essential agricultural products. Disruptions in trade due to the war have sparked fears of potential shortages and food crises, seemingly validating Malthus’s dire predictions.

But are these fears grounded in reality? A closer examination reveals a more nuanced picture, particularly in the context of Türkiye.

Türkiye’s Agricultural Self-Sufficiency: A Closer Look

Despite its reliance on imports for certain agricultural products, Türkiye has historically demonstrated resilience in agricultural production. Key FAO statistics provide insights into global and local trends that challenge the perception of an imminent food crisis:

1. Global Agricultural Stability:

   • Between 2017 and 2019, the global index for oils derived from plants remained steady at around 109.

   • Similarly, grain production indices fluctuated only marginally, indicating global stability in food production.

2. Türkiye’s Agricultural Indicators:

   • Oil sufficiency remained above 100 during the same period, reflecting self-sufficiency in certain categories like olive oil.

   • Grain sufficiency, however, dipped slightly below 100 by 2019, highlighting a reliance on imports for wheat and other staples.

3. Russia-Ukraine Production Dynamics:

   • Between 2017 and 2019, both countries saw increases in grain and oil production. Russia's grain production rose from 109 to 122, and Ukraine's from 97 to 118.

These figures underscore that while disruptions in imports from Russia and Ukraine could create short-term challenges, they are unlikely to precipitate a full-blown crisis for Türkiye.

Key Challenges for Türkiye

1. Türkiye’s consumption patterns, deeply rooted in grain-based staples like bread, create a heavy reliance on wheat imports, particularly from Ukraine and Russia.

2. The war has disrupted trade routes and created bottlenecks, leading to increased costs for agricultural imports.

3. Adverse weather conditions, such as droughts and floods, have occasionally impacted Türkiye’s agricultural productivity.

Opportunities and Alternative Strategies

1. Leverage Domestic Strengths:

   • As a leader in olive oil production, Türkiye can promote this as an alternative to imported sunflower oil.

   • Encouraging the cultivation of barley, maize, and other grains can reduce dependence on wheat.

2. Adopt Sustainable Practices:

   • Improved water management systems, such as drip irrigation, can mitigate the effects of climate variability.

   • Investments in agricultural research can enhance yields and resilience to pests and diseases.

3. Strengthen Regional Trade:

   • Collaborations with neighboring countries can open new avenues for agricultural trade, minimizing dependence on Russia and Ukraine.

4. Policy Interventions:

   • Government subsidies for local farmers can boost domestic production.

   • Anti-wastage campaigns and efficient distribution systems can ensure equitable access to available resources.

Learning from Global Examples

1. By focusing on advanced farming techniques and water management, the Netherlands has become a global agricultural powerhouse despite limited land. Türkiye can replicate these models, particularly in arid regions.

2. Diversification and investments in indigenous grains like millets have helped India reduce its dependence on wheat. Türkiye could explore similar initiatives to promote local grain varieties.

Conclusion: A Resilient Path Forward

The Russia-Ukraine war has undoubtedly created ripples in global agricultural markets. However, Türkiye’s agricultural sector is far from fragile. With its natural resources, strategic location, and robust olive oil and fruit production, the country has significant capacity to weather these disruptions.

By focusing on sustainability, diversifying crops, and enhancing domestic production, Türkiye can transform this challenge into an opportunity. While Malthus’s predictions of widespread food scarcity remain largely theoretical, they serve as a reminder of the importance of proactive planning and efficient resource management.

In an interconnected world, Türkiye’s resilience will depend not just on self-sufficiency but also on its ability to adapt and innovate in the face of global challenges.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

Mithat Direk is serving the Department of Agricultural Economics, Selcuk University, Konya-Türkiye.

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