Transforming Türkiye's Agricultural Sector for Resilience

Türkiye's agricultural sector, which contributes 6.1% to the national GDP and employs 18% of the workforce (TÜİK, 2023), is increasingly under pressure from both climate change and economic instability. While agriculture has historically been a resilient pillar of rural livelihoods and food security, a confluence of rising temperatures, erratic weather, and financial stress is pushing the sector toward a critical tipping point.

The impacts of climate change are already being felt across the country. Average temperatures have increased by 1.5°C since the 1970s, with projections warning of a 2-4°C rise by 2050 (Boğaziçi University Climate Report, 2023). Such warming threatens to disrupt crop cycles, reduce yields, and increase the frequency of pests and diseases. Türkiye has also experienced an increase in extreme weather events. The 2023 floods in Antalya caused an estimated $285 million in crop damages (AFAD, 2023), while a rare Mediterranean hurricane or "medicane" in 2021 destroyed 40% of Muğla's olive harvest (Ministry of Agriculture, 2022). These disruptions are compounded by a notable shift in seasonal patterns, with an 18-day advancement in spring phenology observed across Anatolia (METU Ecosystem Study, 2023), impacting planting and harvesting calendars.

On the economic front, rising input costs and limited financial resilience are further straining farmers. Fertilizer prices have surged by 127% since 2021, placing a heavy burden on small and medium-sized producers (TZOB, 2023). Only 32% of farmers have access to formal credit, with the rest relying on informal or high interest borrowing, which limits their ability to invest in adaptive technologies (TBB Agricultural Banking Report, 2023). Despite the existence of the TARSIM agricultural insurance scheme, uptake remains low only 15% of cropland is currently insured (Insurance Association of Türkiye, 2023). Without broader insurance coverage and financial safeguards, farmers remain highly vulnerable to losses from climate-induced shocks. Addressing these dual climate and economic challenges will be essential to ensuring the long-term viability of Türkiye’s agricultural sector.

Governance Bottlenecks Undermining Agricultural Resilience in Türkiye

Türkiye’s agricultural sector, while central to rural livelihoods and food security, is constrained by persistent policy failures and institutional inefficiencies that limit its ability to respond to both economic pressures and the growing threat of climate change. Structural weaknesses in governance and administration have hampered the delivery of effective support to farmers. A major issue is the fragmented nature of public assistance currently, there are 17 separate subsidy programs operating with minimal coordination, resulting in overlap, inefficiency, and diluted impact (Court of Accounts Report, 2023). This fragmentation is further exacerbated by inadequate data infrastructure; 62% of farms lack formal digital records, undermining efforts to implement precision farming or targeted interventions (TÜİK Farm Registry, 2023). Political interference also plays a significant role in distorting policy outcomes. According to a 2023 TEPAV analysis, nearly three-quarters (73%) of agricultural subsidies are distributed in the run-up to elections, often with limited regard for sectoral priorities or actual need.

Equally concerning are the gaps in climate adaptation. Current responses to growing environmental risks are reactive and poorly resourced. For drought, only 35% of the country’s irrigation systems are considered efficient, highlighting the urgent need for smart water grids and modern irrigation infrastructure. Frost events becoming more frequent and erratic are addressed primarily through delayed compensation mechanisms, with payouts averaging a two-year delay after damage occurs. This leaves many smallholders financially exposed and unable to recover in time for subsequent planting cycles. Soil degradation is another critical threat: 57% of Türkiye’s agricultural land is experiencing declining fertility due to erosion, chemical misuse, and monocropping. Yet policies promoting regenerative agriculture, such as organic inputs, cover cropping, or no-till practices, remain underfunded and lack nationwide reach.

To safeguard its agricultural future, Türkiye must move beyond fragmented short-termism toward coordinated, evidence-based governance. Strengthening digital infrastructure, depoliticizing subsidies, and embedding climate resilience in policy design are essential steps to rebuild trust, improve farmer outcomes, and future-proof the sector against escalating climate and market shocks.

Innovative Solutions for Risk Mitigation

Türkiye is beginning to explore forward-looking strategies to enhance agricultural resilience through innovative technologies, financial instruments, and institutional reforms. These solutions are aimed at mitigating climate and market risks while boosting productivity and sustainability for farmers. Among the most promising developments are climate-smart technologies. Precision agriculture tools, such as drip irrigation systems piloted in Şanlıurfa, have shown the potential to save up to 40% of water use. Similarly, TÜBİTAK’s AI-powered frost prediction model reduced citrus losses by 28% in Mersin by providing timely alerts. Renewable energy solutions are also gaining momentum. The YEKA Program has facilitated the installation of 12,000 solar-powered greenhouses, lowering energy costs and improving off-season production. Additionally, biogas systems using farm waste could potentially meet 8% of Türkiye’s agricultural energy demand, according to the EU Twinning Project.

In parallel, innovative financial tools are emerging to manage climate risk and enhance market participation. Index-based insurance, piloted in Konya, uses satellite data to automatically trigger payouts during droughts, covering 5,000 wheat farmers and reducing administrative delays. Blockchain is also being deployed to improve traceability and transparency in value chains. In Antalya, citrus exports authenticated through blockchain technology earned a 17% price premium. TMO’s “e-Hububat” platform further advances this shift by digitizing grain trading, offering more transparent pricing and reducing middlemen dependence.

Institutional reforms are critical to scaling these innovations. A proposed Agricultural Risk Management Agency could integrate the operations of TARSIM (crop insurance), TKDK (rural development funds), and TMO (grain procurement), streamlining support and enabling real-time risk monitoring through IoT sensors. To ensure fiscal accountability and data-informed decision-making, a Farmer Accounting System is also being proposed. This would mandate e-ledgers for all subsidy recipients, while offering tax incentives to farmers adopting certified sustainable practices. These interventions, if implemented at scale, could fundamentally transform Türkiye’s agricultural risk landscape.

Global Inspiration, Local Transformation: A Strategic Path for Türkiye’s Agricultural Future

To overcome the intersecting challenges of climate change, market volatility, and institutional inefficiency, Türkiye can draw from proven international models while tailoring them to its unique agro-ecological zones. The Netherlands’ “Climate Farm” model, which has achieved a 60% reduction in agricultural emissions through advanced greenhouse technologies and circular farming, offers a high-potential template for greenhouse-intensive regions such as Antalya and Mersin. Israel’s Watergen initiative, which harvests atmospheric moisture to produce clean water, could be instrumental in addressing severe drought stress in the Aegean and Southeastern Anatolia. Similarly, Brazil’s ABC (Low-Carbon Agriculture) Program, which blends soil regeneration, carbon sequestration, and sustainable intensification, aligns well with Türkiye’s goals for restoring the Anatolian steppe and boosting productivity under climate stress.

A phased roadmap is essential to localize and scale these innovations effectively. In the short term (2024–2026), Türkiye should prioritize foundational enablers—rolling out a Digital Farmer ID system integrated with the national e-Government portal, establishing Climate Advisory Centers in all 81 provinces, and setting up a dedicated Input Price Stabilization Fund to mitigate cost shocks. By the medium term (2027–2028), critical assets such as a National Soil Health Map and a regulated carbon credit market for farmers must be operational, alongside financial instruments to hedge export risks in global markets. The long-term phase (2029–2030) should aim for systemic transformation through the launch of an AI-powered "Agricultural Brain" decision-support system, full modernization of irrigation networks, and a shift to 100% traceable export supply chains to meet international quality and sustainability standards.

If implemented effectively, these interventions could deliver measurable gains across key indicators by 2030. The proportion of insured farmland is expected to rise from 15% to 65%, while water use efficiency would more than double, from 35% to 75%. Income volatility for farmers would decrease significantly, and the share of climate-resilient farms could reach 60% positioning Türkiye as a leader in sustainable agricultural transformation.

Conclusion

Türkiye’s agricultural sector stands at a pivotal crossroads. The escalating risks posed by climate change and market instability, compounded by deep-rooted governance inefficiencies, demand urgent and coordinated action. Yet the path forward is not one of despair, but of opportunity. As this analysis has shown, Türkiye has the capacity to transform its agricultural risk landscape by aligning global best practices with local realities. From deploying precision technologies and smart irrigation to institutionalizing risk management and enabling carbon markets, a comprehensive, forward-looking strategy is within reach.

Central to this transformation is a renewed commitment to evidence-based governance, digital infrastructure, and farmer-centered innovation. Short-term reforms must lay the foundation for longer-term resilience, while cross-sectoral collaboration between public agencies, farmers, researchers, and the private sector will be critical to ensuring inclusive and sustainable progress. With the right investments and political will, Türkiye can not only shield its farmers from the shocks of tomorrow but also lead the region in building a climate-resilient, economically viable, and globally competitive agricultural system. The next decade offers a narrow but vital window to act decisively. Seizing it will determine whether agriculture in Türkiye becomes a casualty of crisis or a model of 21st-century adaptation and resilience.

References: TÜİK; Ministry of Agriculture; TBB; World Bank; TEPAV; Boğaziçi University Climate Report; AFAD; METU Ecosystem Study; TZOB; TBB Agricultural Banking Report; Insurance Association of Türkiye; TÜİK Farm Registry

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Selcuk University, Konya-Türkiye and can be reached at mdirek@selcuk.edu.tr

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