The Decline of Cotton Production in Pakistan: Challenges and Implications

Cotton, often referred to as "white gold," has historically been the backbone of Pakistan's agricultural economy. This crucial crop plays a significant role in the country's textile industry, which contributes nearly 60% to Pakistan's total exports. However, the state of cotton production in Pakistan has been deteriorating over the past decade, with the crop facing a multitude of challenges. As of the 2024-25 season, the situation is particularly dire, with cotton production expected to drop to 6.9 million bales—a stark contrast to the 15 million bales produced just a decade ago.

The decline in cotton production is not just a reflection of the challenges faced in a single season but rather a culmination of years of neglect, poor management, and external environmental factors. This article delves into the factors contributing to the current crisis, the potential consequences, and the critical steps that must be taken to mitigate further losses.

The Current State of Cotton Production in Pakistan

The 2024-25 cotton season in Pakistan has been marred by several factors, most notably the poor condition of the crop sown in May 2024. In contrast, the cotton crop planted in March 2024 has shown relatively better performance in terms of yield and quality. However, the overall outlook remains bleak, with the expected production forecast of 6.9 million bales being difficult to achieve.

The decline in cotton production is attributed to several factors:

1. The unpredictable and severe weather patterns, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, have had a devastating impact on cotton crops. The overlapping rain spells have created unfavorable conditions for the growth and development of the cotton plants. Excessive rainfall not only hampers the growth of the crop but also creates ideal conditions for the proliferation of pests and diseases.

2. The cotton crop in Pakistan is under constant threat from various pests, including the armyworm, whitefly, pink bollworm, and jassid. These pests, if left unchecked, can cause damage that surpasses the economic injury level, leading to significant losses in yield and quality. The pest pressure has been exacerbated by the persistent rain spells, which create a conducive environment for these pests to thrive.

3. Over the past decade, Pakistan has witnessed a steady decline in both the yield and quality of its cotton crop. Factors such as the lack of access to high-quality seeds, inadequate pest management, and poor agricultural practices have all contributed to this decline. The result is a crop that is increasingly less competitive on the global market, further threatening the livelihoods of farmers and the broader economy.

The Impact of Weather and Pest Pressure

Weather conditions have always played a critical role in determining the success of agricultural crops, and cotton is no exception. The 2024-25 season has been particularly challenging due to the overlapping rain spells in Punjab and Sindh. These rains have not only disrupted the growth cycle of the cotton plants but have also led to an increase in humidity, creating an ideal breeding ground for pests.

The armyworm, whitefly, pink bollworm, and jassid are among the most destructive pests affecting cotton crops in Pakistan. These pests attack the cotton plants at various stages of their growth, leading to reduced yield and lower-quality fiber. For instance, the pink bollworm is known to bore into the cotton bolls, causing them to drop prematurely and reducing the overall fiber quality. Similarly, whiteflies and jassids sap the vitality of the plants by feeding on their sap, weakening them and making them more susceptible to diseases.

The persistence of these pests, combined with the challenging weather conditions, has made it increasingly difficult for farmers to protect their crops. Left untreated, the damage caused by these pests can be catastrophic, leading to losses that far exceed the economic injury level—a threshold beyond which the cost of pest damage outweighs the cost of controlling the pests.

The Long-Term Decline: From 15 Million to 6.9 Million Bales

The decline in cotton production in Pakistan is not a recent phenomenon. Over the past decade, the country has seen its cotton output drop from 15 million bales to an expected 6.9 million bales in the 2024-25 season. This dramatic decline is a reflection of systemic issues that have plagued the cotton industry for years.

One of the primary reasons for this decline is the lack of investment in modern agricultural practices and technologies. While other countries have embraced advancements in biotechnology, pest management, and irrigation, Pakistan's cotton sector has remained largely stagnant. The use of outdated farming techniques, coupled with a lack of access to high-quality seeds and inputs, has resulted in declining productivity.

Moreover, the cotton sector has been neglected by policymakers, who have failed to provide the necessary support to farmers. This includes a lack of subsidies for high-quality seeds and fertilizers, inadequate extension services, and insufficient research and development efforts aimed at improving crop resilience and yield.

The result is a cotton industry that is struggling to keep up with global competitors. Countries like India and Bangladesh, which have made significant investments in their cotton sectors, are now outpacing Pakistan in terms of both production and quality. This has significant implications for Pakistan's textile industry, which relies heavily on domestic cotton for its raw material needs.

Critical Tasks to Avoid Further Losses

Given the current state of cotton production in Pakistan, it is imperative that immediate and effective measures are taken to mitigate further losses. The following tasks are crucial to safeguarding the remaining cotton crop and ensuring that future seasons are more successful:

1. The use of print, electronic, and social media is essential to disseminate high-alert messages to farmers. Timely information about pest threats, weather conditions, and best practices can help farmers take proactive measures to protect their crops. Media campaigns should be targeted and region-specific, ensuring that farmers in the most affected areas receive the information they need.

2. The Extension and Pest Warning Departments must prioritize the urgent scouting of pest populations in cotton-growing areas. These surveys will provide real-time data on pest infestations, allowing for targeted interventions. By identifying pest hotspots early, farmers can be advised on the appropriate measures to take, reducing the overall impact of pest pressure.

3. Based on the findings of the pest scouting surveys, the relevant authorities must recommend the proper pesticides for pest control. It is crucial that these recommendations are based on the specific pests present in each area, as well as the stage of crop growth. Over-reliance on broad-spectrum pesticides can lead to resistance, making it even harder to control pests in the future.

4. Pesticide companies must mobilize their field force to assist farmers in pest scouting and implementing control measures. These field agents can play a vital role in educating farmers on the correct use of pesticides, ensuring that applications are effective and minimize environmental impact. Collaboration between the private sector and government agencies is essential to achieving this goal.

The Way Forward: Revitalizing Pakistan’s Cotton Industry

The challenges facing Pakistan's cotton industry are significant, but they are not insurmountable. To revitalize the industry and restore it to its former glory, a comprehensive and multi-faceted approach is required. This approach must address both the immediate challenges of the current season and the long-term structural issues that have led to the decline in cotton production.

1. To combat the decline in cotton production, there must be increased investment in research and development. This includes developing pest-resistant cotton varieties, improving seed quality, and advancing irrigation techniques. By investing in modern agricultural technologies, Pakistan can increase its cotton yield and improve the quality of its fiber.

2. Extension services play a critical role in educating farmers about best practices in cotton cultivation. These services must be strengthened to provide farmers with timely and relevant information. This includes training on pest management, irrigation, and the use of fertilizers and pesticides.

3. The government must provide policy support and subsidies to encourage the adoption of modern farming practices. This includes subsidies for high-quality seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides, as well as financial incentives for farmers who adopt sustainable agricultural practices.

4. To ensure that farmers receive fair prices for their cotton, there must be improvements in market access. This includes developing better transportation and storage infrastructure, as well as establishing transparent and efficient markets where farmers can sell their produce.

5. The private sector has a crucial role to play in revitalizing the cotton industry. This includes investments in cotton processing and value addition, as well as partnerships with farmers to improve productivity. By fostering collaboration between the public and private sectors, Pakistan can create a more resilient and competitive cotton industry.

Securing the Future of Cotton in Pakistan

The future of Pakistan’s cotton industry hangs in the balance. With production levels at a historic low, immediate action is required to address the challenges facing the sector. By implementing the recommended tasks and adopting a comprehensive approach to revitalizing the industry, Pakistan can restore its position as a leading cotton producer. The time to act is now, to ensure that the white gold of Pakistan continues to be a source of economic prosperity for future generations.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

Naveed Shahzad is an Entomologist and CEO of Punam Seeds, Faisalabad, Pakistan

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