Sindh's Wheat Crisis : The Question of Food Security

Sindh's agricultural sector is in crisis due to ongoing issues, including persistent water shortages caused by unfair water distribution, the spread of fake seeds and fertilizers, recurring droughts caused by climate change, floods from unpredictable rains, contamination of underground water, and increasing threats from sea storms. These issues, combined with the anti-farmer policies implemented by our governments, have had a significant influence on the region's agricultural sector.

Because of this, Pakistan is currently ranked as one of the nation’s most at risk from climate change. Furthermore, Pakistan is experiencing dangerously high rates of hunger and malnutrition. Pakistan is placed at number 109 out of 127 nations in the 2024 Global Hunger Index. Growing food insecurity and nutritional inadequacies make the future even more bleak. Approximately 40% of children have stunted growth because of inadequate nutrition, and 18% of children under five suffer from severe malnutrition.

Pakistan is primarily an agricultural nation, and the progress of its agriculture has a direct impact on both its economic growth and food security. One of Pakistan's principal crops and the primary staple diet for its people is wheat, which is also grown alongside rice, cotton, and sugarcane. Bread prepared from wheat flour is a staple food in both urban and rural locations. Pakistan is one of the world's top users of wheat flour, with 72% of the grain being consumed to meet the population's nutritional and caloric demands. With an average yearly consumption of 120–125 kg of wheat per person, Pakistan needs 29–31 million metric tonnes of wheat to feed its 250 million people.

However, because of climate change, population growth, higher costs of input, and poor pricing policies, wheat and flour crises could get worse in future years, becoming an even greater threat to food security and hunger. The working and lower-middle classes rely heavily on wheat flour as their primary food source.

Although governments normally establish plans for wheat procurement, storage, and delivery to flour mills after harvesting, rising food costs and farmers' inability to get reasonable prices have discouraged wheat production. For example, in the 2023-24 season, the government established the support price for wheat at PKR 4,000 per 40 kg, however owing to noncompliance by Sindh's Food Department, farmers were compelled to sell their 100 kilograms wheat bags to traders at PKR 7,100, rather than the official PKR 10,000 cost. The identical bag sold for PKR 7,400 in Karachi's open market, while rural farmers in Sindh were forced to sell for PKR 2,500 to 3,000 every 40 kg, hardly covering their production expenses.

Pakistan's Economic Survey states that 31.583 million metric tonnes of wheat were intended to be sown during the Rabi season of 2024–2025; however, a 20% deficit is anticipated because of low prices from the previous season, water scarcity, and high input costs. As a result, many farmers did not cultivate wheat this year. Although wheat harvesting has started as of March 2025, the Sindh government has not yet made an official announcement on the procurement price. According to reports, the government has chosen not to buy wheat this year because of IMF requirements and 1.376 million metric tonnes of outdated inventories.

There have also been rumors of millions of rupees worth of wheat vanishing from government warehouses—an all-too-familiar scenario in Sindh. The Food Department is obligated to physically inspect stock every three months, but no such verification has been done for almost a year. There are mounting suspicions that wheat worth PKR 183 billion may have been damaged or stolen. Following the 2022 floods, PKR 3.22 billion wheat was allegedly sold and replaced with spoilt bags. Corruption throughout the supply chain, from procurement to flour mills, is no secret, and the final weight falls on the poor farmer and laborer, who pays higher rates for flour to feed their family.

Farmer organizations contend that both the federal and provincial governments lack effective and sustainable agriculture policy. The hard-working peasants who cultivate the land and produce food are unable to receive appropriate compensation for their harvests. There is no effective system in place to assure food security for the population.

In a worrying move last year, the caretaker administration bought wheat worth $1 billion despite having enough local supplies. Instead of spoiling, this wheat should have been exported to gain foreign cash. The plan to import rather than rely on local excess is creating concerns.

Wheat prices in the country have dropped after the government failed to declare a support price. The price of 40 kg (one maund) wheat has reduced to between Rs. 2,200 and Rs. 2,400. According to data, the introduction of fresh wheat harvest in the country’s markets has resulted in a significant drop in prices. The government's decision not to create a support price has further driven interest rates lower. In the open market, wheat is being sold for Rs. 2,200 and Rs. 2,400 per 40 kg, which is creating major financial losses to farmers. Meanwhile, flour mill owners are only acquiring wheat based on immediate necessity, thus exacerbating the situation for farmers.

Wheat prices may fall even lower with the arrival of the full new wheat crop, when the government releases old stock to the market. This will harm farmers who have already invested considerably. With no official support price, wheat is presently selling for Rs. 2,200 and Rs. 2,400 per 40 kg and may go below PKR 2,000, as dealers anticipate desperate farmers being compelled to sell.

For farmers to be fairly compensated for their labor, the farmer leaders underlined that the government should safeguard their interests by buying wheat from them and keeping its word.

They went on to say that farmers are being compelled to store their harvested wheat outdoors due to inadequate storage facilities, putting it at risk of spoiling and causing irreversible financial loss. In this situation, farmers are compelled to sell their crops at throwaway prices, which is further deteriorating their economic conditions.

The government's double standards were also criticized by the farmers; while officials claim they will not purchase wheat grown locally, they are also thinking about buying wheat from elsewhere. Not only does this approach undermine farmers, but it also hurts the country's economy by wasting valuable foreign currency.

The leaders of the farmers called on the government to protect farmers' rights, buy wheat directly from farmers, and keep its promises to pay farmers fairly. To help farmers prevent additional losses, they also urged the government to provide adequate storage facilities that would shield the wheat crop from weather-related damage.

If wheat procurement objectives are missed by 20%, it will have major long-term consequences. Wheat, which is presently offered inexpensively, may become unavailable or extremely costly soon, costing up to PKR 5,000 per 40 kg. Hoarders will benefit, and flour prices will skyrocket, affecting the common person the most.

Global organizations have previously warned that if Pakistan fails to improve its food and nutrition metrics, the repercussions will be disastrous. Rising food costs will have a direct impact on the poor, deteriorating their nutritional state because of climate change and population growth.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writers are 1 Professor at Sindh Agriculture University Tandojam, Pakistan & 2 Director at PARC-SSRI, Tandojam, Sindh Pakistan and can be reached at mikumbhar2000@yahoo.com & aslammemon@parc.gov.pk 

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