Sindh's Agricultural Crisis: A Growing Concern

Sindh, long regarded as the breadbasket of Pakistan, is now confronting a deepening farmland crisis that threatens its agricultural legacy and economic stability. The province, responsible for 23% of the national agricultural GDP and home to over 60% of the country’s rural population, is undergoing unprecedented land-use change. Urban sprawl, unchecked industrialization, and worsening climate conditions, particularly salinity, waterlogging, and desertification, are collectively eroding its agricultural base. According to recent satellite assessments by the Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO, 2024), over 15% of Sindh’s cultivable land has been lost to urban and industrial expansion over the past two decades, with hotspots in Karachi, Hyderabad, and Sukkur districts showing the highest conversion rates.

The implications of this transformation are multifaceted. On the food security front, reduced arable land means lower production of staple crops like wheat, rice, and sugarcane, further exacerbating price volatility and food inflation. Economically, as farmland shrinks, thousands of rural laborers are displaced, contributing to rising unemployment and rural-to-urban migration. From 2010 to 2023, Sindh reported a 20% increase in rural outmigration due to declining agricultural viability (PBS, 2023). Environmentally, deforestation and loss of green cover are intensifying local temperature extremes and reducing biodiversity.

This crisis is rooted in both policy and planning failures. Historical neglect of land zoning regulations, the absence of urban growth boundaries, and limited investment in sustainable land management have allowed this conversion trend to accelerate. Yet, solutions are within reach. Integrated land-use planning, enforcement of agricultural land protection laws, promotion of vertical urban development, and investment in land rehabilitation, such as salt-tolerant crops and bio-drainage, could reverse some of these trends. Drawing from insights by FAO, IWMI, and PBS, this article explores both the historical roots and forward-looking policy actions required to safeguard Sindh’s remaining agricultural landscape and ensure food and livelihood security for future generations.

Historical Legacy: Sindh’s Agrarian Roots

Sindh’s agrarian identity is deeply embedded in its history, stretching back over 5,000 years to the Indus Valley Civilization. Archaeological findings from Mohenjo-Daro and surrounding sites reveal evidence of advanced canal-based irrigation systems that sustained staple crops such as wheat, barley, and cotton, laying the foundations of one of the world’s earliest organized agricultural economies (UNESCO, 2022). This legacy continued through successive civilizations and peaked during the British colonial era with the construction of the Sukkur Barrage in 1932. This massive infrastructure project transformed over five million acres of desert and semi-arid land into irrigated farmland, turning Sindh into a major producer of food and fiber for the subcontinent (PBS, 2021).

Following independence in 1947, Sindh retained its status as Pakistan’s leading agricultural province well into the late 20th century. Between 1947 and 2000, it remained a top producer of wheat and cotton, contributing significantly to national food security and textile exports. However, the past two decades have marked a dramatic reversal. Driven by urban expansion, poor water governance, and systemic policy neglect, the province has seen a 30% reduction in cultivable land since 2000 (FAO, 2023).

Multiple forces are responsible for this erosion. Urban encroachment, particularly the rapid expansion of Karachi, has consumed over 150,000 acres of farmland. Similar patterns are seen in Hyderabad and Sukkur, where housing societies are proliferating on fertile lands (SUPARCO, 2024). Meanwhile, water scarcity, exacerbated by upstream diversions, has reduced the Indus River’s flow by 27% since 1960, and 35% of Sindh’s soils are now saline and unproductive (IWMI, 2023; PCRWR, 2024). Land fragmentation due to inheritance laws has halved average farm sizes, pushing many smallholders below the poverty line (PBS, 2023). The failure to enforce land protection policies, particularly the Sindh Land Use Act of 2013, has enabled illegal conversions and speculative real estate development, further accelerating agricultural decline.

Economic Fallout: From Breadbasket to Food Importer

Sindh’s agricultural decline is no longer a distant concern, it is an economic crisis with national consequences. Once a vital breadbasket, the province has seen its agricultural GDP contribution plummet from 28% in 1990 to just 18% in 2024, reflecting a broader erosion of productivity and policy focus (PBS, 2024). Wheat production in Sindh has fallen sharply from 4.2 million metric tons in 1990 to 2.8 million in 2024, a staggering 33% drop. This contraction has contributed to Pakistan’s growing dependency on imported staples, with the country now spending over $3 billion annually on wheat imports to bridge domestic shortfalls (FAO, 2024). At the same time, the rural poverty rate has surged from 32% to 45% during the same period, underscoring the social costs of declining agricultural livelihoods (World Bank, 2024).

The textile sector, which depends on local cotton, has also suffered. With a 40% drop in cotton production since 2015, the industry faces rising input costs and shrinking global competitiveness (APTMA, 2024). If left unaddressed, Sindh’s farmland crisis could further weaken national food security, rural employment, and export earnings.

Yet recovery is possible. Enforcing the Sindh Agricultural Land Protection Act through satellite monitoring and imposing taxes on farmland conversions could slow urban encroachment (ADB, 2023). Water use can be optimized through drip irrigation subsidies and the rehabilitation of over 1,000 silted canals, improving irrigation coverage (IWMI, 2024; SIDA, 2024). Promoting climate-smart agriculture, such as salt-tolerant wheat varieties and solar-powered cold storage, could enhance resilience and reduce post-harvest losses. Urban farming initiatives, including rooftop gardens in Karachi, could supply up to 20% of the city’s vegetables, easing pressure on rural production (UNDP, 2024). Finally, interest-free loans and land consolidation programs can empower smallholders to scale up operations and reinvest in productivity. These combined efforts are vital to reversing Sindh’s agricultural decline and restoring its role in national food security.

Conclusion

Sindh’s agricultural crisis stands at the intersection of environmental degradation, policy inertia, and unchecked urbanization. Once revered as Pakistan’s breadbasket, the province now teeters on the brink of food insecurity, rural disempowerment, and economic fragility. The loss of cultivable land, driven by rapid urban encroachment, water mismanagement, and climate-induced salinization, has not only slashed crop output and increased reliance on costly imports but also displaced countless rural livelihoods. From the collapse in wheat and cotton yields to the rising rural poverty rate, the economic and social fallout is undeniable.

However, this trajectory is not irreversible. With strategic reforms, ranging from strict enforcement of land use policies and investment in water-efficient technologies, to adoption of climate-smart farming and revitalization of urban agriculture, Sindh can reclaim its role as a food-secure and agriculturally vibrant province. Empowering smallholders through financial inclusion and consolidating fragmented plots will further unlock latent productivity. Ultimately, saving Sindh’s farmland is not just about preserving its agrarian heritage, it is about securing the future of Pakistan’s food system, climate resilience, and rural economy. Time is running out, but with coordinated action and political will, a turnaround is within reach.

References: World Bank; SUPARCO; IWMI; FAO; ADB; PCRWR; APTMA; SIDA; UNDP

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Sindh Agriculture University Tandojam Sindh, Pakistan and can be reached at faizaabbasi8722@gmail.com

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