Reviving Agriculture in Pakistan for a Resilient Future

Pakistan’s agricultural sector is the cornerstone of its economy, contributing 24% to the national GDP and employing 38% of the labor force (World Bank, 2024). Despite this foundational role, the sector’s export performance remains underwhelming, with agricultural exports plateauing at approximately $5 billion per year, well below the country’s potential, especially in the context of rising global demand for food, fiber, and high-value agro-products (FAO, 2023). The sector is increasingly constrained by interlocking challenges including climate volatility, water scarcity, outdated farming technologies, limited value addition, and fragmented institutional support systems. These constraints significantly reduce productivity and make Pakistani agriculture less competitive on the global stage.

The devastating 2022 super floods, which inundated 4.4 million acres of cropland and caused an estimated $30 billion in economic damage, exemplify the acute risks posed by climate change (World Bank, 2023). However, even before this catastrophic event, Pakistan’s agricultural productivity was growing at a modest 1.8% per year, far below the 3.5% seen in India and 4.2% in Bangladesh, highlighting deep-rooted structural inefficiencies (FAO, 2023). Without bold reforms, Pakistan risks falling further behind as neighboring economies aggressively pursue export-led agricultural growth.

This article delves into specific bottlenecks within Pakistan’s key agricultural sub-sectors, rice, cotton, and horticulture, while analyzing policy gaps, institutional weaknesses, and climate vulnerabilities. Drawing on recent field research in Punjab and Sindh, and supported by data from the World Bank, FAO, and ADB, we explore practical pathways for transforming agriculture into a driver of sustainable export growth. We argue that strategic crop diversification, investment in climate-resilient technologies, better access to export markets, and institutional modernization could raise annual agricultural export earnings to $8 billion. At the same time, these interventions would enhance food security, boost rural incomes, and position Pakistan as a competitive player in global agro-trade.

Sectoral Dynamics: From Stagnation to Strategic Export Diversification

Pakistan’s agricultural export landscape reflects a paradox of potential versus performance. Despite being the 4th-largest exporter of rice globally, producing 7.4 million tons of Basmati annually (FAO, 2022), Pakistan captures only 15% of the global branded Basmati market. This underperformance, termed the “Basmati Paradox,” stems largely from quality control issues. In 2023 alone, 23% of rice shipments to the EU were rejected due to pesticide residue violations (ITC, 2024). However, initiatives such as Punjab’s 2023 Smart Basmati Program, which combined drip irrigation with blockchain-based traceability, have shown promise. This program improved yields by 25% and reduced EU rejections by 12%, demonstrating the potential of technology-driven interventions (Punjab Agriculture Department, 2024). Still, Pakistan lacks enforceable food safety regulations and international branding comparable to India’s.

In cotton, once dubbed “white gold,” Pakistan has witnessed a 40% production decline since 2015, costing the textile sector $2 billion in export revenues (Hussain et al., 2025). This collapse is driven by pest outbreaks, deteriorating water access, and poor seed quality. Innovation trials such as BT Cotton V3 hybrids in Multan showed 35% higher yields, but scaling is hindered by monopolized seed distribution and the fragmented nature of smallholder farms. Corporate models like Engro’s IoT-enabled farm in Sindh, achieving 900 kg/acre, suggest viable models for revitalization—if backed by inclusive investment (ADB, 2023).

In horticulture, Pakistan’s position as the 6th-largest mango producer offers untapped potential, yet 35% of mangoes are lost post-harvest due to inadequate cold storage (FAO, 2021). ADB-supported solar-powered pack houses in Multan extended shelf life by 10 days and increased mango exports to Iran by 50% (ADB, 2023). However, only 12% of farmers currently benefit from cold chain infrastructure. Bridging this infrastructure gap through targeted investment and public-private partnerships could transform Pakistan’s horticulture into a high-value export engine.

Climate Resilience and Structural Reforms: Securing Pakistan’s Agri-Export Future

As climate change intensifies, Pakistan’s agricultural export pipeline faces growing volatility. Extreme weather events, heatwaves, floods, and pest outbreaks are causing significant economic disruption. In recent years, wheat yields have dropped by 30% during intense heat spells, while the 2022 floods alone resulted in $1.5 billion in rice export losses (Ministry of Climate Change, 2024). Cotton, already in structural decline, suffered 40% crop damage from pest outbreaks. Yet, climate-resilient innovations are emerging. Drought-tolerant wheat varieties such as Uqaab-2025, satellite-based flood early warning systems, and biocontrol agents like Trichogramma have demonstrated potential for stabilizing output. Climate insurance pilots in Thar have reduced farmer loan defaults by 60% (World Bank, 2024), proving the viability of risk-transfer mechanisms. Additionally, scaling up drip irrigation remains crucial for countering chronic water stress, especially in Sindh and southern Punjab.

However, resilience must be paired with systemic reforms. Pakistan’s agro-export competitiveness is hampered by regulatory and financial inefficiencies. Trade policy remains fragmented, with 137 overlapping tariff codes that restrict market access (ITC, 2023). Aligning trade infrastructure with China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) routes could cut export logistics costs and unlock new regional markets. Financially, a redirection of ₨. 200 billion in subsidies from water-intensive staples like wheat and rice toward high-value horticulture and climate-smart technologies is essential. Introducing Green Credit Lines at concessional rates (5%) for renewable energy-powered cold storage will also expand marketable surpluses.

Institutionally, technology adoption and land consolidation are critical. Punjab’s Kisan App, now used by over 1.2 million farmers, provides real-time pricing and input access, an innovation ready for national scaling. Likewise, consolidating land parcels below five acres will improve mechanization and traceability.

To future-proof Pakistan’s agricultural exports, we recommend the formation of a National Agri-Trade Council to unify provincial and federal policies, the establishment of 50 agri-tech incubators to support blockchain traceability, and a complete reorientation of subsidies toward climate-resilient agriculture. These reforms are not only necessary to withstand climate shocks but also to reposition Pakistan as a competitive force in global agro-markets.

Conclusion

Pakistan stands at a critical juncture where agriculture, once a steady economic mainstay, must now evolve into a climate-resilient and export-oriented sector to secure its future. Despite contributing 24% to GDP and employing nearly two-fifths of the workforce, the sector’s export stagnation at $5 billion underscores deep inefficiencies and missed opportunities. Climate change, outdated practices, and fragmented policy frameworks have eroded competitiveness, even as regional peers surge ahead. However, the roadmap to revival is within reach. Strategic investments in value-added horticulture, smart technologies like drip irrigation and blockchain traceability, and adoption of climate-resilient seed varieties can stabilize yields and open high-value global markets.

Simultaneously, structural reforms, such as rationalizing tariff codes, consolidating landholdings, and digitizing farmer services, can unlock economies of scale and foster innovation. With proper alignment of trade, financial, and institutional reforms, Pakistan’s agriculture can shift from survival to surplus, from volatility to value. Raising annual agri-exports to $8 billion is not just aspirational, it is attainable, if bold, coordinated action is taken now.

References: FAO; World Bank; Hussain, et al.; ADB; ITC; Punjab Agriculture Department; Ministry of Climate Change

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Sindh Agriculture University Tandojam Sindh, Pakistan and can be reached at alinaarain792@gmail.com

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