Pakistan's Water Conflict: Indus Treaty Crisis

The suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has plunged Pakistan’s agriculture sector into unprecedented threat. As agriculture accounts for 24% of Pakistan’s GDP and employs 38% of the labor force, its fate is intricately tied to the Indus River System, which provides irrigation for 90% of all cultivated land. The abrupt halt in real-time hydrological data sharing from India and the looming threat of reduced river flows have created a crisis of planning, productivity, and food security. According to the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR, 2025), wheat and rice yields could decline by 30–40% by 2030 if the disruption persists. This translates into potential economic losses of up to $50 billion annually, with 65 million acres of farmland under threat and food insecurity looming over 245 million citizens (World Bank, 2025).

Recent data from provincial and federal sources paints a grim picture. Wheat yields in Punjab are projected to decline from 2.8 tons to 1.9 tons per hectare, resulting in losses of $12 billion per year. Sindh’s rice exports, already strained by water unpredictability, may fall by $1.5 billion, causing widespread farmer defaults, estimated at 40%. Cotton cultivation has also collapsed, with acreage in Punjab down 40% since 2015, endangering the $4 billion textile industry.

The cumulative impact of water scarcity, agricultural contraction, and export decline threatens to destabilize Pakistan’s rural economy and national balance of payments. Without immediate investment in water storage, precision irrigation, and climate-resilient crop diversification, Pakistan risks a systemic agrarian breakdown with global food security implications. The current crisis underscores the urgent need for both diplomatic resolution and domestic reforms to build agricultural resilience in the face of geopolitical and climatic shocks.

Water Wars Escalate

The intensification of transboundary tensions over water between India and Pakistan has evolved into a strategic challenge now commonly described as a “water war.” India’s 2023 National Water Strategy, which prioritizes domestic hydropower and irrigation, has resulted in the diversion of an estimated 15–30% of Chenab and Jhelum River flows, according to the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR, 2025). These diversions undermine the core tenets of the Indus Waters Treaty and have begun to reshape Pakistan’s hydrological security landscape. The consequences are already manifesting across sectors and regions, with Pakistan’s urban and rural systems equally exposed.

In the urban context, Karachi, a city of over 20 million, faces a growing crisis as its water supplies from the Indus system have dwindled. Current shortages affect nearly 50% of the city's demand, forcing lower-income neighborhoods to rely on expensive tanker mafias or unsafe groundwater extraction. The Sindh Environmental Protection Agency (2025) projects that water scarcity could displace over 1 million climate migrants into urban slums by 2030, exacerbating public health challenges and infrastructure strain.

In the rural belt, water insecurity is driving mass agricultural distress. Field surveys conducted in Muzaffargarh and Ghotki in 2024 revealed that 70% of smallholder farmers lack the capital to install or maintain groundwater pumps. The situation is particularly dire in canal-dependent zones, where reduced inflows and poor maintenance have crippled irrigation reliability. A rice farmer from Ghotki, interviewed by Dawn (2024), lamented: “My rice seedlings died waiting 40 days for canal water. I had no money for diesel to run the tube well.”

Such testimonies reflect the growing desperation across the farming community, where loss of crop viability directly translates into income shocks, debt spirals, and forced migration. As India tightens upstream control and Pakistan struggles with adaptive capacity, the mounting water stress threatens to rupture both food production systems and rural livelihoods. Without coordinated hydro diplomacy, investment in water-saving technologies, and expanded credit access for farmers, Pakistan risks escalating from ecological vulnerability to agrarian collapse.

Policy Solutions: The Indus Resilience Accord

To address Pakistan’s mounting water insecurity and agricultural vulnerability, a multi-pronged policy framework, proposed as the Indus Resilience Accord, offers a strategic roadmap for national and regional stabilization. The first pillar is infrastructure transformation. With over 60% of irrigation sourced from declining groundwater tables, the government proposes the installation of 30,000 solar-powered tubewells at a cost of ₨. 150 billion. These would reduce diesel dependency and expand access to clean, affordable irrigation, particularly in tail-end regions of Sindh and southern Punjab. In parallel, the Punjab Irrigation Department has initiated a pilot to digitize canal operations using IoT sensors at the Trimmu Barrage. These real-time monitoring systems aim to improve water flow regulation, curb theft, and enhance distribution equity.

The second pillar focuses on diplomacy. With the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in jeopardy, Pakistan must escalate its case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) under Article IX, which allows for arbitration in the event of treaty violation. Complementing legal avenues, a proposal for joint satellite-based monitoring of Indus River flows could restore trust, transparency, and predictive capacity for both countries, mitigating accidental escalation and ensuring real-time data access for irrigation and disaster planning.

Domestically, the Accord calls for bold but necessary reforms. One recommendation is to phase out sugarcane cultivation in chronically water-stressed districts such as Bahawalpur, where the crop’s high-water demands are no longer sustainable. Replacing it with climate-resilient alternatives like millet and pulses could reduce irrigation pressure by up to 40%. Finally, scaling up climate insurance schemes for smallholders would protect vulnerable farmers against yield losses from droughts, floods, and erratic rainfall. These policies, when enacted together, would build long-term hydrological resilience, reduce geopolitical exposure, and secure the livelihoods of Pakistan’s 38 million rural agricultural workers.

Conclusion

Pakistan stands at a critical crossroads as the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and the growing water conflict with India expose deep vulnerabilities in its agrarian economy. The looming specter of agricultural collapse, marked by a projected 30–40% drop in wheat and rice yields, mass farmer indebtedness, and potential food insecurity for over 245 million people, signals a national emergency. With water diversions and canal disruptions already taking a toll on critical crops and rural livelihoods, the threat is no longer abstract. It is tangible, immediate, and escalating.

Yet, the crisis also presents a pivotal opportunity for reform. The proposed Indus Resilience Accord provides a coherent, strategic response that blends infrastructure modernization, legal diplomacy, and domestic policy overhaul. Solar-powered tubewells, IoT-enabled canal systems, international arbitration, and a transition to climate-smart crops such as millet and pulses represent practical, scalable solutions. Critically, these interventions must be paired with expanded farmer credit, crop insurance, and region-specific bans on unsustainable crops like sugarcane.

Ultimately, Pakistan’s path forward lies in transforming vulnerability into resilience. By investing in water governance, diplomatic engagement, and agricultural innovation, the country can not only safeguard its food systems but also reclaim agency in an increasingly water-insecure region. Water must not become a weapon, but a shared resource for peace and prosperity.

References: PCRWR; World Bank; Sindh EPA; Dawn; Sindh Environmental Protection Agency

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Sindh Agriculture University Tandojam Sindh, Pakistan and can be reached at alinaarain792@gmail.com

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