Future of Türkiye's Agricultural Sector: Strategies

The agricultural sector, often likened to an "open-top factory," is inherently susceptible to various risks, particularly those stemming from unpredictable environmental factors. Over the past century, climate change has intensified these risks, leading to more frequent droughts, erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and extreme weather events. These challenges pose significant threats to agricultural productivity, food security, and rural livelihoods. In Türkiye, where agriculture contributes 6.5% to the GDP and employs 18.4% of the workforce, such climatic uncertainties have a profound impact on farmers, many of whom rely on traditional farming methods and lack financial buffers against crop losses.

Despite the increasing prevalence of agricultural insurance as a tool for risk mitigation, coverage remains inadequate. Many smallholder farmers either lack awareness or find premiums unaffordable, leaving them highly vulnerable to unexpected climate shocks. Türkiye's Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSİM) has expanded coverage in recent years, yet the adoption rate among farmers remains below optimal levels. This gap highlights the urgent need for comprehensive risk management strategies, including enhanced insurance accessibility, climate-smart agricultural practices, and stronger government intervention.

Policymakers must prioritize incentives for drought-resistant crops, precision irrigation, and soil conservation techniques to enhance agricultural resilience. Additionally, financial subsidies, technological investments, and farmer education programs can help mitigate risks and ensure long-term sustainability. Without proactive measures, Türkiye’s agricultural sector will continue to face increasing threats, endangering both national food security and economic stability. Strengthening agricultural resilience is not only necessary for protecting farmers but also vital for sustaining the country's overall economic growth.

Climate Change and Its Impact on Turkish Agriculture

Climate change is increasingly threatening Türkiye’s agricultural sector, disrupting long-standing farming practices and creating significant economic and environmental challenges. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events have already had profound impacts on crop yields, water availability, and soil fertility. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), agricultural production declined by 7.6% in 2021, largely due to erratic weather conditions and droughts. This decline underscores the growing vulnerability of Türkiye’s agriculture to climate change.

The Mediterranean and Aegean regions, which are crucial for fruit, vegetable, and olive production, have been severely affected by prolonged droughts and increasing temperatures. Farmers in these regions report declining water resources and deteriorating soil conditions, leading to lower crop productivity. Conversely, the Black Sea region, traditionally known for its tea, hazelnut, and corn production, has faced excessive rainfall and frequent flooding, damaging crops and making farming conditions unpredictable. Such climate extremes have forced many farmers to alter their planting schedules and adopt costly adaptation measures.

A study by the Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urbanization forecasts a 2-3°C temperature increase by the end of the century, which could worsen water scarcity and accelerate soil degradation. The shift in seasonal patterns has already become evident, with planting and harvesting times altered by up to two weeks. For instance, unseasonably warm winters cause fruit trees to bloom prematurely, only to be damaged by unexpected late frosts, leading to significant economic losses for farmers.

If climate adaptation strategies are not implemented urgently, the long-term sustainability of Türkiye’s agricultural sector will be at risk. Policies promoting water conservation, drought-resistant crops, and improved irrigation techniques will be critical in mitigating the negative effects of climate change and ensuring food security and economic stability for the country’s rural communities.

The Role of Agricultural Insurance

Agricultural insurance plays a vital role in protecting farmers from financial losses due to unpredictable weather conditions, pests, and other risks. However, its adoption in Türkiye remains limited, leaving a significant portion of the agricultural sector vulnerable. As of 2022, only 20% of farmers were covered by agricultural insurance, meaning the vast majority still rely on traditional coping mechanisms such as selling assets, taking loans, or reducing input costs, which can further weaken their financial stability. Without proper insurance, farmers face severe income fluctuations that can threaten their long-term sustainability and food security.

To mitigate these risks, the Turkish government has introduced initiatives like the Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM), which offers coverage for crops, livestock, and greenhouses. TARSIM has been instrumental in providing farmers with financial protection against climate-related disasters such as droughts, floods, and hailstorms. However, despite these efforts, several barriers hinder the widespread adoption of agricultural insurance. High premium costs, limited awareness, and bureaucratic complexities prevent smallholder farmers—who form the backbone of Türkiye’s agricultural sector—from fully utilizing these financial safety nets.

To enhance the effectiveness of agricultural insurance, the government could consider expanding subsidies to lower premium costs, making insurance more accessible to small-scale farmers. Additionally, awareness campaigns aimed at educating farmers on the benefits of insurance and integrating insurance with access to credit and technical assistance could further encourage participation. Strengthening these measures would help create a more resilient agricultural sector, ensuring that farmers are better prepared for future climate uncertainties.

Defining Farming as a Profession

A key challenge in Turkish agriculture is the prevailing perception of farming as a supplementary activity rather than a full-fledged profession. Many farmers rely on additional income sources because agricultural earnings alone are often insufficient to sustain their livelihoods. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the average monthly income of a farming household is approximately $500, which is significantly lower than the national average. This economic vulnerability discourages young people from entering the sector, contributing to an aging farming population, with 60% of farmers aged 50 or older. The lack of financial security and career prospects in agriculture has led to rural-to-urban migration, further shrinking the farming workforce and endangering long-term food security.

To establish farming as a sustainable profession, improving financial literacy and record-keeping practices among farmers is crucial. Implementing an accounting system that tracks income, expenses, and profitability would help farmers analyze their financial performance, identify inefficiencies, and make data-driven decisions. Such measures could improve productivity and ensure that farming remains economically viable.

Additionally, introducing professional certification programs could enhance the sector's credibility and encourage farmers to adopt modern agricultural techniques. These certifications could be linked to access to markets, subsidies, and agricultural credit, creating incentives for farmers to comply with quality and sustainability standards. By recognizing farming as a profession that requires skill, knowledge, and business acumen, Türkiye can revitalize its agricultural sector, attract younger generations, and promote long-term rural development.

Policy Reforms for Long-Term Resilience

The Turkish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry plays a crucial role in shaping agricultural policies, but frequent policy shifts, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and short-term planning hinder long-term resilience in the sector. One of the most pressing issues is the lack of stability in subsidy programs and price supports, which creates uncertainty for farmers and discourages investments in modern technology, infrastructure, and sustainable practices. Addressing these challenges requires practical, long-term solutions that enhance resilience and productivity.

One key area of reform is sustainable water management. Türkiye is classified as a water-stressed country, with per capita water availability below 1,500 cubic meters annually. Despite this, only 25% of irrigable land utilizes modern irrigation techniques such as drip and sprinkler irrigation, leading to inefficient water use. Expanding subsidies for water-saving technologies, offering training on efficient irrigation methods, and enforcing stricter water conservation policies could significantly improve agricultural water efficiency.

Another vital reform is crop diversification and value addition. Farmers who rely on traditional staple crops often face price volatility and climate-related risks. Encouraging high-value crops, such as organic produce, medicinal plants, and drought-resistant varieties, could increase profitability and reduce dependence on weather-sensitive crops. Furthermore, investing in agro-processing industries—such as food packaging, dehydration, and cold storage facilities—would allow farmers to process raw agricultural products, reducing post-harvest losses and increasing market value.

Adopting climate-resilient practices is also essential. The government could expand research and development initiatives to introduce drought-resistant crops, soil conservation methods, and regenerative farming techniques. Additionally, implementing early warning systems for extreme weather events, combined with accessible insurance programs, would help farmers prepare for and mitigate climate-related risks.

Lastly, strengthening farmer cooperatives is critical. Despite their potential, only 10% of Turkish farmers are members of cooperatives. Expanding cooperative networks and offering financial and technical support would enable farmers to access bulk purchasing, shared resources, and collective bargaining power, ensuring better market access and economic stability. By implementing these reforms, Türkiye can create a resilient, sustainable, and competitive agricultural sector.

The Need for a Holistic Approach

Effective risk management in agriculture necessitates a comprehensive, multi-faceted approach that goes beyond isolated interventions. A holistic strategy should integrate insurance solutions, policy reforms, and technological advancements to enhance resilience and sustainability. One key component is leveraging digital tools such as precision agriculture, satellite imaging, and artificial intelligence. These technologies enable farmers to monitor crop health, optimize irrigation, reduce input waste, and predict yields, allowing for proactive decision-making that minimizes financial losses.

Beyond technology, public-private partnerships (PPPs) can play a crucial role in addressing infrastructure deficiencies that hinder agricultural efficiency. Investments in rural roads, cold storage, and efficient logistics systems would reduce post-harvest losses and ensure that farmers can access broader markets. Encouraging private sector involvement in rural development projects would mobilize financial and technical resources that the government alone may struggle to provide.

Additionally, collaborations between the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, academic institutions, NGOs, and international organizations could facilitate the development of data-driven policies based on real-world evidence. Sharing best practices, research insights, and innovative solutions would help farmers and policymakers alike adopt sustainable, climate-resilient strategies. By fostering a cooperative ecosystem, Türkiye can strengthen its agricultural sector, ensuring its long-term viability in the face of climate and economic uncertainties.

Conclusion

The future of Türkiye’s agricultural sector depends on its ability to address risks through comprehensive and sustainable strategies. Climate change, financial instability, and outdated farming practices present significant challenges, but with targeted policy reforms, technological advancements, and improved risk management tools, the sector can become more resilient. Expanding agricultural insurance coverage, promoting climate-smart farming techniques, and strengthening farmer cooperatives will play a crucial role in ensuring long-term stability.

Additionally, recognizing farming as a profession by improving financial literacy, introducing certification programs, and enhancing income opportunities will help revitalize rural communities and attract younger generations to agriculture. Sustainable water management and crop diversification are also essential to mitigate climate risks and ensure food security.

Public-private partnerships, government support, and collaboration with research institutions can drive innovation and infrastructure development, providing farmers with the necessary resources to thrive. By embracing a holistic approach that integrates policy consistency, technological innovation, and financial accessibility, Türkiye can transform its agricultural sector into a more efficient, climate-resilient, and economically viable industry. Without decisive action, the challenges facing Turkish agriculture will continue to grow, threatening not only rural livelihoods but also national food security and economic stability. Investing in resilience today will secure a more sustainable and prosperous future for the country’s farmers and consumers alike.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

Mithat Direk is serving the Department of Agricultural Economics, Selcuk University, Konya-Türkiye.

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