Demand for Agricultural Products in Türkiye

The fundamental principle of demand asserts that as the price of a good rises, the quantity demanded generally falls, and as the price decreases, the quantity demanded increases. This inverse relationship is referred to as the law of demand and typically holds true under stable market conditions (Mankiw, 2023). It assumes that all other factors influencing demand remain constant, a condition known as ceteris paribus.

However, in real-world markets, this relationship can be influenced by factors such as consumer expectations and external economic conditions. For example, if consumers expect prices to rise further in the future due to inflation, they may choose to increase current purchases, even at higher prices, to avoid paying more later. This behavior temporarily disrupts the law of demand by causing an increase in quantity demanded despite rising prices (TUIK, 2023). Similarly, if consumers anticipate a future price drop, they may postpone purchases, leading to a decrease in demand regardless of the lower current prices.

The demand curve is a graphical representation of this relationship, typically sloping downward from left to right, illustrating how quantity demanded changes in response to price fluctuations. Two primary economic concepts help explain this downward slope. The income effect suggests that when the price of a good falls, the consumer’s real income effectively increases, allowing them to purchase more of that good (OECD, 2022). The substitution effect, on the other hand, explains that as a good becomes cheaper relative to its alternatives, consumers tend to substitute it in place of more expensive options, thereby increasing its demand (FAO, 2023). Together, these effects reinforce the law of demand and provide a deeper understanding of consumer behavior in response to price changes.

Factors Shifting Demand in Türkiye’s Agricultural Sector

The demand curve in Türkiye’s agricultural sector is dynamic and subject to shifts driven by various external factors, even when prices remain constant. One of the most influential determinants is a change in consumer income. As incomes rise, especially in urban areas, there is a noticeable increase in demand for higher-value agricultural goods. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, 2023) reports that recent per capita income growth has led to greater consumption of protein-rich foods such as meat and dairy, along with fresh fruits and vegetables, while demand for traditional starchy staples like bread and potatoes has declined. This shift reflects a broader transition in dietary patterns linked to economic development and urban lifestyles.

Changes in the prices of substitute goods also affect demand. For example, if lamb becomes more affordable in a region like Konya, consumers may switch their preference from beef to lamb, thereby decreasing the demand for beef without any change in its own price (Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2023). In addition, evolving consumer preferences significantly shape market demand. Urbanization has fueled an increase in the consumption of processed and packaged foods, catering to faster-paced lifestyles (Euromonitor, 2023). Simultaneously, health-conscious trends have spurred a rise in organic food consumption, which has grown by 15% annually since 2020 (ITC, 2023).

Seasonal and demographic factors also play a critical role. For instance, tourism causes demand surges in Türkiye’s coastal regions during peak travel seasons, significantly influencing the local agricultural markets (TUIK, 2023). Moreover, religious and cultural events such as Ramadan cause a temporary but predictable spike in the consumption of certain products, including dates, dairy, and meat (OECD, 2022). These multidimensional drivers demonstrate how non-price factors continuously reshape agricultural demand in Türkiye’s evolving economic and social landscape.

Unique Characteristics of Agricultural Product Demand in Türkiye

Agricultural product demand in Türkiye exhibits unique characteristics shaped by evolving consumer behavior, economic growth, and urbanization. One key trait is the frequent yet stable nature of food demand. While the overall need for food remains consistent, specific consumption patterns have shifted over time. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, 2023), per capita fruit consumption increased by 22% between 2010 and 2023, reflecting growing awareness of health and nutrition. Conversely, bread consumption has steadily declined, suggesting a move away from traditional, carbohydrate-heavy diets toward more varied and health-conscious eating habits.

Another notable feature is the increasing diversification in product forms. As lifestyles become busier, particularly in urban centers, demand for canned, frozen, and ready-to-eat agricultural products has grown significantly (FAO, 2023). These convenience-focused options cater to time-constrained households and younger populations seeking quick meal solutions without sacrificing quality or nutrition.

Moreover, rising incomes have fueled emerging demand for goods that were once considered luxury items. This includes exotic fruits, organic produce, and imported specialty foods. Consumers are increasingly seeking diversity and novelty in their diets, creating new market niches for producers willing to innovate.

These trends carry important implications for Turkish agricultural producers and policymakers. To stay competitive in a rapidly evolving market, producers must closely monitor consumer trends, especially the rising demand for health-focused and convenience-based products. Relying solely on traditional, supply-driven production models is no longer sufficient. Instead, a shift toward demand-responsive strategies is necessary. Producers should also invest in value-added processing and targeted marketing that aligns with consumer preferences, especially when pursuing export opportunities in the EU and Middle Eastern markets. Policies supporting market intelligence, innovation, and producer capacity building will be essential to fully capitalize on these evolving demand dynamics and maintain Türkiye’s agricultural competitiveness in both domestic and international arenas.

Conclusion

The demand for agricultural products in Türkiye is shaped by a complex interplay of economic, social, and demographic factors that go beyond simple price fluctuations. While the law of demand remains a foundational principle, real-world dynamics such as inflation expectations, income growth, urbanization, and shifting consumer preferences frequently alter demand patterns. Rising incomes have led to a dietary transition toward protein-rich and health-conscious foods, while convenience-oriented lifestyles are fueling increased demand for processed and ready-to-eat products. Seasonal tourism and cultural events like Ramadan also contribute to temporary yet significant spikes in demand for specific agricultural items. Additionally, the growing interest in organic and exotic foods highlights consumers’ desire for variety and wellness, creating opportunities for product innovation and diversification. These evolving trends underscore the need for Turkish agricultural producers to move beyond traditional, supply-focused strategies. Embracing a demand-driven approach, supported by robust market intelligence and responsive production planning, will be essential to stay competitive. Furthermore, targeted policies that enhance producer capacity, incentivize value-added processing, and promote strategic marketing, particularly for exports, can help unlock new growth avenues. Understanding and adapting to the unique characteristics of agricultural demand is key to ensuring long-term sustainability and resilience in Türkiye’s agricultural sector.

References: FAO; ITC; Mankiw, N.G. (2023); Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Türkiye; OECD; TUIK.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Selcuk University, Konya-Türkiye and can be reached at mdirek@selcuk.edu.tr

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