Critical Warning from IPCC on Climate Change Impact in Pakistan

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued a critical warning: "If we cannot manage today’s climate risks, we will be unprepared for the future." This stark reminder is particularly relevant for Pakistan, a nation already feeling the brunt of climate change. The immediate challenge is to build resilience at the community level, ensuring that farmers can cope with everyday climate hazards while also preparing for the increasing severity of future events. However, the situation is further complicated by the regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions that influence Pakistan's climate resilience and agricultural sustainability.

The Impact of Regional Conflicts on Pakistan’s Climate Resilience

Pakistan’s agricultural sector, the backbone of its economy, is especially vulnerable to climate variability. Farmers are already dealing with unpredictable seasons, altered sowing dates, and the persistent threat of in-season hazards like heavy rains, flooding, drought, and pest infestations. These challenges, though less dramatic than large-scale disasters, can lead to significant crop losses, threatening food security and contributing to political instability. However, the regional conflicts, particularly with neighboring India, further strain Pakistan's resources and exacerbate these vulnerabilities.

The ongoing conflicts with India over water resources, particularly the Indus River system, add a layer of complexity to Pakistan's climate challenges. The Indus Waters Treaty, which governs the distribution of water between the two countries, is frequently a source of tension, especially as climate change alters water availability. This has significant implications for Pakistan's agricultural sector, which is heavily dependent on the Indus River for irrigation. The uncertainty surrounding water access due to geopolitical tensions makes it difficult for farmers to plan their crop cycles, further increasing their vulnerability to climate change.

Additionally, the influx of refugees from conflict zones, such as Afghanistan and, previously, from areas affected by the Kashmir conflict, places additional pressure on Pakistan's already strained agricultural resources. The need to provide food, water, and shelter to these displaced populations diverts resources from long-term agricultural planning and climate resilience efforts.

Developing Climate Resilience Amidst Conflict

To address these intertwined challenges, Pakistan needs comprehensive planning and coordinated efforts at both the regional and production system levels. This involves developing projects and mechanisms for the continuous mapping and monitoring of climate risks, enabling the timely development of coping strategies. A critical moment approach—identifying risks, assessing impacts, and evaluating the effectiveness of coping options—is essential. By focusing on specific crop stages and agro-ecological zones, this approach can help ensure sustainable crop production across Pakistan's diverse agricultural landscape.

However, the success of these efforts requires a greater level of interdisciplinary engagement. Identifying vulnerabilities and developing user-relevant climate risk metrics and services are crucial steps. Equally important is the involvement of farm communities, whose experiences and knowledge must be incorporated into development plans. The resilience of these communities, who are on the front lines of climate change and regional conflicts, will ultimately determine the success of any policy response.

Over time, changes in mean climate have exacerbated inherent climate variability, creating new threats within the evolving climate landscape. Farmers, in their bid to adapt, have adjusted their crop production practices, but these changes bring new risks that must be promptly addressed. This calls for an integrated approach to coping and adaptation planning—one that promotes climate-resilient agriculture while considering the geopolitical context.

Policy Responses to Strengthen Resilience

Pakistani policies recognize the implications of climate science, but so far, efforts have focused mainly on disaster risk management for large-scale events like floods and droughts. The less extreme, yet equally damaging, local weather variability often goes unnoticed. This oversight neglects the frequent, smaller-scale hazards that affect production at various stages throughout the growing season. The result is a cycle of vulnerability, where farmers face recurring risks with insufficient support. Moreover, regional conflicts, such as those with India over water resources, exacerbate these vulnerabilities by creating uncertainty and limiting the effectiveness of existing policies.

To strengthen Pakistan’s resilience to climate change and its ability to cope with regional conflicts, there are eight specific policy areas where government intervention is crucial:

1. Rapid response mechanisms are needed to address the heightened risks in agriculture. Delays can render coping efforts ineffective, underscoring the importance of timely access to weather information, inputs, and finance, particularly in conflict-affected areas.

2. Continuous mapping and monitoring of climate risks provide the foundation for developing coping strategies tailored to current and future conditions. This process should include pathway analysis to identify indirect impacts, such as pest infestations and disease outbreaks, and to control their spread, while also considering the impacts of regional conflicts on resource availability.

3. Effective coping requires timely responses, which can be achieved through well-coordinated rapid response systems. These systems should involve diverse disciplines and institutions to ensure the timely provision of financial, technical, advisory, and input supply services, even in areas affected by conflict.

4. Weather forecasts, linked to early warning systems and market services, are essential for helping farmers avert potential threats during the crop production season. Institutional integration is key to providing the necessary support, especially in regions where conflict disrupts communication and infrastructure.

5. Moderate climate hazards can have extreme impacts, as demonstrated by the critical moment approach. A comprehensive financial framework is required to support proactive planning and post-production assessments when in-season coping fails, particularly in regions where conflicts exacerbate economic instability.

6. Dealing with changing climate conditions requires short-term action combined with long-term planning. This necessitates ongoing transdisciplinary efforts to implement structural changes and ensure sustainable agricultural practices, while also considering the need for resource allocation in conflict-affected areas.

7. Despite clear policy guidelines, implementation remains a challenge in Pakistan. In-season hazards are often overlooked, and there is a need for inclusive support systems that incorporate smallholders and provide real-time climate information, even in areas where regional conflicts limit government reach.

8. Farmers are willing to adapt to climate change, but they need support to do so effectively. Site-specific support is essential, particularly for the diverse agro-ecological zones in Pakistan. This includes developing new production packages and services that fit traditional systems while addressing the challenges of a more erratic climate and the impacts of regional conflicts.

Conclusion: A Path Forward

Building resilience to climate change in Pakistan requires a multifaceted approach that integrates coping and adaptation strategies while addressing the impacts of regional conflicts. By focusing on the unique challenges faced by different regions and communities, and by ensuring timely and coordinated responses, Pakistan can safeguard its agricultural sector and ensure food security for the future. The ongoing conflicts, particularly with neighboring India over water resources, add complexity to these efforts, making it even more urgent for Pakistan to adopt a holistic approach that considers both climate resilience and geopolitical realities. The time to act is now, before the next climate storm—and the next regional conflict—hits.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

Hassnain Shah is Director, Social Sciences Division, Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Islamabad, Pakistan

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