Climate Change Impact on Sindh Agriculture

Pakistan remains one of the most severely impacted countries by climate change, with its vulnerability exacerbated by frequent natural disasters, reliance on monsoon rains, and dependence on the glacier-fed Indus Basin. The country’s socioeconomic challenges further amplify its susceptibility to rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and increased risks of floods and droughts. Climate change poses a significant threat to Pakistan’s economy, food security, and agricultural productivity, with recent data from Sindh highlighting the urgency of addressing these issues.

Over the past few decades, Pakistan has experienced a notable increase in average annual temperatures, rising by approximately 0.5°C since the 1960s. Projections indicate that by 2050, temperatures could increase by an additional 1.3°C to 1.5°C, further intensifying the challenges faced by the agricultural sector. Pakistan is currently ranked as the 8th most vulnerable country to climate change, with greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture contributing significantly to the problem. Agriculture accounts for about 43% of Pakistan’s emissions, primarily through methane from livestock and rice paddies, and nitrous oxide from synthetic fertilizers and manure. These gases have a far more potent warming effect than carbon dioxide.

In Sindh, the impact of climate change is particularly severe. Rising temperatures and water scarcity have disrupted agricultural practices, while deforestation and unsustainable farming methods have worsened the situation. For instance, banana production in Sindh has been severely affected by rising temperatures and water shortages, with diseases like Panama wilt further damaging orchards. In June 2024, temperatures in Sindh soared to 52°C, far above the average of 45°C, causing heat stress that destroyed 50% of banana crops.

Impact on Key Crops

Climate change has severely impacted agriculture in Sindh, affecting key crops like wheat, rice, mangoes, maize, and vegetables. The province, known for its fertile Indus Basin, has faced erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, and extreme weather events, leading to lower crop yields and economic losses for farmers.

Mangoes, a signature crop of Sindh, have suffered significantly due to climate anomalies. In 2023, a prolonged winter and delayed summer disrupted the flowering process, resulting in a 20% drop in production from 1.8 million metric tons to 1.44 million metric tons. Similarly, high temperatures in May and June have led to fruit drop and sunburn, reducing mango quality and export potential.

Wheat production in Sindh has also been affected. Rising temperatures, particularly in March, have shortened the grain-filling period, leading to lower yields. According to the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), wheat yields in Pakistan are expected to decline by 16% by 2050.

Rice production, which is critical for Sindh’s economy, has been disrupted by heat stress and reduced water availability. In 2024, high temperatures during the grain-filling phase increased the number of non-productive kernels, significantly lowering yield. Water shortages in lower Sindh due to upstream diversions have further exacerbated the decline in production.

Maize farming in Sindh has also been hit hard by heatwaves during pollination and grain development stages, resulting in 20-30% yield losses in some districts. Farmers in Dadu and Nawabshah have reported major financial setbacks due to lower-than-expected harvests.

Vegetables, particularly potatoes, onions, and tomatoes, have been impacted by temperature fluctuations. In 2024, unseasonal heatwaves reduced germination rates by 30% in areas like Thatta and Badin, while delayed winter rains have affected planting schedules, leading to price instability.

The increasing unpredictability of climate patterns in Sindh highlights the urgent need for adaptation strategies, such as climate-resilient crop varieties, improved irrigation techniques, and farmer support programs. Without intervention, Sindh's agricultural sector may continue to face declining productivity and worsening food security.

Challenges and Mitigation Efforts

Sindh faces severe climate-related agricultural challenges, including water scarcity, soil degradation, and extreme weather events. In response, the Government of Pakistan and provincial authorities have introduced several initiatives to enhance climate resilience and support farmers.

Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) is being promoted under the National Climate Change Policy 2021 to mitigate the effects of rising temperatures and erratic rainfall. Sindh’s farmers are encouraged to adopt drip and sprinkler irrigation systems to optimize water usage, especially in drought-prone areas like Tharparkar and Badin. Additionally, heat- and drought-resistant crop varieties are being developed to sustain productivity despite increasing climate stress.

Under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), significant investments are being made in agricultural resilience projects in Sindh, focusing on water resource management, agricultural mechanization, and livestock development. These include better storage facilities, distribution networks, and improved fertilizer production, which help farmers manage crop losses and enhance food security.

Sindh has also benefited from the 10 billion Tree Tsunami campaign, launched in 2018 to combat deforestation and desertification. Large-scale reforestation projects in Sindh, such as mangrove restoration in coastal areas and tree plantation drives in urban and rural settings, help mitigate climate change impacts and improve agricultural sustainability.

The Land Information and Management System (LIMS) is another key initiative that provides real-time data on weather conditions, soil health, and water availability to farmers. Through LIMS, farmers in Mirpurkhas and Sukkur can make informed decisions about crop selection, irrigation, and harvesting schedules, improving overall productivity.

Despite these efforts, more localized solutions are needed in Sindh, such as revitalizing traditional irrigation canals, constructing small-scale water reservoirs, and promoting climate-smart farming practices at the grassroots level. Expanding access to financial resources, farmer training programs, and community-led climate adaptation strategies is essential to ensuring Sindh’s long-term agricultural resilience.

Way forward

To mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture and food security in Sindh, a multi-pronged approach integrating technology, policy, financial support, and farmer education is essential. The following workable solutions can enhance climate resilience and ensure sustainable agricultural productivity in the province.

Farmers should be incentivized to adopt drip and sprinkler irrigation systems to optimize water use, particularly in drought-prone areas like Tharparkar and Badin. Additionally, heat- and drought-resistant crop varieties must be promoted. Collaboration with research institutions, such as Sindh Agriculture University and the National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC), can accelerate the development and dissemination of resilient seeds.

Revitalizing traditional irrigation canals and constructing small-scale reservoirs can help counter water shortages. The Sindh Irrigation Department should focus on lining watercourses to minimize seepage losses and rehabilitate canal infrastructure in lower Sindh, where farmers struggle with limited access to water due to upstream diversions.

Farmers should be encouraged to diversify cropping patterns by integrating less water-intensive crops like millets, pulses, and oilseeds alongside staple crops like wheat and rice. This would reduce dependency on high-water-demand crops and enhance food security.

The Land Information and Management System (LIMS) should be expanded to provide localized weather alerts and seasonal crop advisories to farmers via mobile applications and SMS services. Improved forecasting can help farmers plan their irrigation and planting schedules effectively.

Access to low-interest loans and crop insurance programs can shield farmers from financial shocks due to extreme weather events. The State Bank of Pakistan should expand credit facilities for climate-resilient farming, and microfinance institutions should offer index-based crop insurance in Sindh’s vulnerable districts.

Scaling up tree plantations in Sindh’s rural areas—particularly mangrove restoration along the Indus Delta—can mitigate soil erosion, improve biodiversity, and reduce heat stress. The Sindh Forest Department and private sector stakeholders should work together on community-led afforestation projects.

Agricultural extension programs should be expanded to train farmers in soil conservation, organic farming, and water-saving techniques. Establishing farmer field schools in collaboration with Sindh Agriculture University and NGOs can ensure widespread adoption of sustainable farming practices.

Conclusion

Addressing the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in Sindh requires urgent and sustained action. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and extreme weather events have already led to declining crop yields, financial losses for farmers, and increased food insecurity. Key crops such as wheat, rice, maize, mangoes, and vegetables are facing significant productivity challenges, highlighting the need for climate-adaptive agricultural strategies. Without effective interventions, Sindh’s agricultural sector will continue to struggle, exacerbating rural poverty and threatening millions of livelihoods.

The government and stakeholders have implemented several initiatives, including Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA), reforestation programs, and digital monitoring systems such as the Land Information and Management System (LIMS). However, these efforts must be expanded and localized to address the specific needs of Sindh’s farming communities. The promotion of water-efficient irrigation techniques, climate-resilient crop varieties, and sustainable farming practices must be prioritized. Additionally, improving financial access through low-interest loans and crop insurance schemes can protect farmers from climate-induced losses.

A collaborative approach involving government agencies, research institutions, financial bodies, and local farmers is essential for building long-term climate resilience. By integrating technology, policy support, and farmer education, Sindh can transition towards a more sustainable and productive agricultural system, ensuring food security and economic stability for future generations.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Faculty of Social Sciences, Sindh Agriculture University Tando Jam, Sindh, Pakistan and can be reached at kaldeep.kumar@gmail.com

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