Climate Change and Agriculture in Pakistan

Pakistan’s agriculture sector, which contributes approximately 19% to the national GDP and employs nearly 38% of the labor force, is increasingly vulnerable to the escalating impacts of climate change (World Bank, 2024). The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, prolonged droughts, flash floods, and unseasonal rainfall, have surged in recent years, threatening national food security and pushing rural communities toward economic instability. The catastrophic floods of 2022 stand as a grim reminder, having submerged 4.4 million acres of cropland, destroyed critical irrigation infrastructure, and inflicted an estimated $30 billion in losses to the agricultural economy (NDMA, 2023). Simultaneously, droughts in arid regions like Balochistan have slashed wheat yields by 40%, intensifying food shortages and displacing entire communities reliant on rain-fed farming systems (PMD, 2024).

Climate projections indicate a dire future unless adaptation strategies are urgently implemented. Pakistan is expected to face a temperature rise of 2.8°C by 2050, which would exacerbate water scarcity, alter growing seasons, and increase crop vulnerability to pests and diseases. Traditional farming methods are ill-equipped to withstand such pressures, making a shift toward Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) not only advisable but essential.

CSA offers a suite of strategies aimed at increasing productivity, enhancing resilience, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These include drought-resistant seed varieties, efficient irrigation techniques like drip and sprinkler systems, agroforestry, weather-indexed insurance, and conservation agriculture practices such as minimum tillage and mulching. Despite proven success in localized pilot projects, the large-scale adoption of CSA in Pakistan remains limited due to barriers such as lack of awareness, inadequate financing, and weak institutional coordination.

The Climate Crisis and Pakistan’s Agriculture

The climate crisis has emerged as a formidable challenge to Pakistan’s agricultural sector, placing both crops and livelihoods at increasing risk. As one of the top ten most water-stressed countries globally, Pakistan is witnessing a troubling rise in drought frequency and severity, particularly in the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh (World Resources Institute, 2023). Rain-fed agricultural systems, which support a significant portion of the rural population in these regions, are becoming increasingly unreliable. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD, 2024) has reported a 35% increase in drought frequency since 2000, with critical crops such as wheat and barley facing major yield reductions. Diminishing water tables, erratic rainfall, and soaring temperatures are leaving farmers unable to plan planting and harvesting schedules with any degree of certainty.

At the same time, the country is vulnerable to devastating floods that cause abrupt and widespread damage. The monsoon season has become increasingly unpredictable, triggering extreme rainfall events that result in flash floods and river overflows. The catastrophic 2022 floods affected over 33 million people, destroyed approximately 2.3 million hectares of agricultural land, and severely disrupted national food supply chains (FAO, 2023). These floods not only wash away crops but also destroy vital infrastructure such as roads, storage facilities, and irrigation systems, making recovery difficult and long drawn.

The dual threats of drought and flooding are placing Pakistan’s food security, rural employment, and export earnings under immense strain. Without targeted adaptation strategies, it is projected that agricultural GDP could decline by 8–10% annually by 2030 due to climate-related losses (UNDP, 2023). The increasing unpredictability of weather patterns demands urgent attention to climate-resilient agricultural practices, better water governance, and investment in early warning and disaster response systems to safeguard Pakistan’s agrarian economy against these mounting threats.

Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) Strategies in Action

Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) has become a vital strategy for building resilience in Pakistan’s agricultural sector, particularly in the face of growing climate risks such as droughts, floods, and soil degradation. In arid zones like Sindh’s Thar Desert, farmers have begun cultivating drought-tolerant crops such as Thar-2023 millet, which yields up to 2.5 tons per hectare while using 30% less water, according to the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC, 2023). Similarly, in Balochistan, the heat-resistant Chakwal-50 wheat variety has led to a 25% yield increase even in areas where temperatures regularly exceed 45°C (CIMMYT, 2024). Alongside these crop innovations, precision irrigation methods are gaining traction. In Punjab’s barani (rain-fed) areas, drip irrigation systems have helped reduce water usage by 60% and simultaneously doubled vegetable yields (Punjab Agriculture Department, 2024). In Sindh’s Umerkot district, the installation of solar-powered tube wells has benefited over 50,000 farmers, lowering diesel fuel costs by an impressive 70% (World Bank, 2024).

Flood-prone regions have also implemented CSA strategies to mitigate damage. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Swat-1 rice variety, which can withstand up to 14 days of submergence, is now cultivated by more than 12,000 farmers (IRRI, 2023). The flood-tolerant Sarshar sorghum variety has been instrumental in reducing crop losses by 35% in waterlogged areas (PARC, 2024). Infrastructure-based solutions, such as the rehabilitation of Sindh’s Left Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD) system, have also been critical. This upgrade shortened floodwater stagnation in Badin district from 30 to just 7 days, thereby saving 50,000 hectares of farmland (Sindh Irrigation Department, 2023).

Agroforestry and soil health improvements are proving to be essential complementary strategies. In Punjab, the planting of native Kikar and Ber trees has decreased wind erosion by 50% and boosted cotton yield by 18% (Punjab Forest Department, 2024). In Balochistan, the use of biochar, carbonized organic matter, has improved soil moisture retention by 40%, increasing drought resilience (ICARDA, 2023).

A comprehensive CSA pilot project launched in 2023 in Punjab’s Chakwal and Bhakkar districts illustrates the benefits of integrated approaches. The initiative combined drought-tolerant wheat, laser land leveling, and agroforestry belts. Farmers reported a 22% increase in wheat yield, a 45% reduction in water usage, and a 60% decline in soil erosion. Adoption rates ranged from 42% to 68%, highlighting the tangible benefits of CSA. However, 58% of participating farmers noted that high upfront costs remain a significant barrier, emphasizing the need for financial support and policy incentives to scale up CSA practices nationwide.

Barriers to CSA Adoption

Despite the proven effectiveness of Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) in mitigating climate impacts, its widespread adoption in Pakistan remains limited due to several institutional, financial, and infrastructural barriers. Fragmented policy coordination between federal and provincial agriculture departments continues to delay effective CSA implementation. Different provinces follow disjointed strategies without a unified national vision, making it difficult to scale successful practices or ensure continuity in climate adaptation programs. Additionally, Pakistan’s investment in agricultural research and development is severely underfunded. The country allocates just 0.3% of its agricultural GDP to R&D, well below the global average of 1.5% (World Bank, 2024), constraining innovation in crop genetics, irrigation technology, and soil management tailored to regional needs.

Moreover, smallholder farmers, who make up the majority of Pakistan’s agricultural workforce, face persistent barriers in accessing CSA technologies. High costs of equipment like drip irrigation systems or climate-resilient seeds, combined with limited credit access, prevent these farmers from transitioning to sustainable practices. Meanwhile, weak early warning systems remain a major vulnerability. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD, 2024) reports that only 30% of farmers receive timely weather alerts, leaving many unprepared for floods, droughts, or heatwaves.

To address these challenges, a multi-tiered policy framework is essential. Establishing a National CSA Fund would ensure dedicated financial resources, with at least 5% of provincial agriculture budgets allocated to subsidize technologies such as drip irrigation, flood-resistant seeds, and soil enhancers like biochar. Leveraging international climate finance instruments, including the Green Climate Fund (GCF), could further support smallholders.

Expanding early warning systems through the deployment of IoT-based weather sensors in drought-prone districts and partnerships with space agencies like NASA and ESA for satellite forecasting would improve preparedness. Strengthening farmer cooperatives can foster collective action—enabling group purchasing of CSA inputs and shared access to machinery. Finally, reinforcing research collaborations between national institutions like PARC and international centers such as CIMMYT, and investing in gene-editing for heat-tolerant crops, will help localize solutions for climate resilience in agriculture.

Conclusion

Climate change has emerged as a defining challenge for Pakistan’s agricultural future, threatening the livelihoods of millions and undermining the foundations of national food security. As the country grapples with increasingly erratic weather patterns, ranging from prolonged droughts to devastating floods, it is evident that traditional agricultural systems can no longer meet the demands of a rapidly changing climate. The evidence presented in this article underscores both the urgency of the crisis and the promise of solutions. Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) has proven to be a viable and impactful response, with successful case studies from across Pakistan demonstrating its ability to improve yields, reduce resource use, and enhance climate resilience.

From drought-tolerant wheat in Balochistan to solar-powered irrigation in Sindh and submergence-resilient rice in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, CSA offers a pathway to transform vulnerability into opportunity. However, the road to widespread adoption remains fraught with challenges—insufficient funding, fragmented policies, weak research investment, and limited farmer access to climate-resilient tools.

Moving forward, the adoption of a national CSA framework, supported by targeted subsidies, robust extension systems, and access to climate finance, is critical. Building institutional capacity, investing in agricultural R&D, and engaging smallholders through cooperatives and digital tools will ensure that CSA is not just a pilot initiative but a nationwide movement. In doing so, Pakistan can lay the groundwork for a more resilient, equitable, and sustainable agricultural economy, one that safeguards its people, secures its food systems, and strengthens its ability to withstand the storms ahead.

References: CIMMYT; FAO; ICARDA; NDMA; Punjab Agriculture Department; World Bank; UNDP; PMD; World Resources Institute; PARC; IRRI; Sindh Irrigation Department; Punjab Forest Department

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Sindh Agriculture University Tandojam Sindh, Pakistan and can be reached at ayeshaghouri644@gmail.com

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