Agricultural Production Transformation in Türkiye's Central Anatolia

Türkiye's agricultural sector remains a cornerstone of its economy, contributing 6.5% to national GDP and employing 18.4% of the workforce, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK, 2023). Within this landscape, the Central Anatolian Closed Basin, especially Konya Province, plays a pivotal role as the country’s breadbasket. Traditionally dominated by dryland wheat and sheep farming, this region has experienced a substantial transformation in recent decades. Driven by state subsidies, market incentives, and a push for higher yields, many farmers have shifted toward water-intensive corn cultivation paired with large-scale cattle farming.

While this transition has increased short-term productivity and income for some producers, it has also introduced a host of environmental and economic challenges, particularly considering Türkiye's growing vulnerability to climate change.The shift from drought-resilient wheat to irrigation-dependent corn has placed immense pressure on the region’s fragile water resources. The Central Anatolian Closed Basin, which lacks natural outflows, is highly sensitive to over-extraction. Intensive groundwater pumping for irrigation has led to a dramatic drop in water tables and the appearance of sinkholes, particularly in Konya. Studies by WWF-Türkiye (2023) warn that current extraction rates are unsustainable and could lead to irreversible damage to aquifers, endangering the region’s long-term agricultural viability. In addition, cattle farming generates more greenhouse gas emissions and accelerates land degradation, further undermining climate resilience.

Economically, the corn-cattle system has increased input dependency on imported feed, fertilizers, and machinery, which exposes farmers to global price shocks and erodes local self-sufficiency. Moreover, the focus on high-yield monocultures reduces biodiversity and increases susceptibility to pests and diseases. Addressing these issues requires a reorientation of agricultural policy towards climate-smart farming, improved water governance, and support for sustainable crop-livestock integration. Promoting rotational grazing, dryland wheat varieties, and drip irrigation could help restore ecological balance while sustaining livelihoods in the region.

The Changing Agricultural Landscape in Central Anatolia

The agricultural landscape of Central Anatolia, particularly in Konya Province, has undergone a significant transformation over the past four decades. Historically known as Türkiye’s breadbasket, the region was dominated by rain-fed wheat cultivation and extensive sheep farming throughout the pre-1980s period. These traditional systems were well-adapted to the region’s semi-arid climate and relied on natural rainfall and low-input practices that preserved ecological balance. However, major shifts in agricultural policy during the 1980s and beyond catalyzed a profound change in land use and resource consumption. To modernize agriculture and boost productivity, government policies began incentivizing irrigated crops, particularly corn, and expanding support for dairy and cattle farming. As a result, groundwater extraction in the Central Anatolian Closed Basin increased by 70%, creating mounting pressure on already fragile water systems (DSI, 2023).

Today, Konya’s water table is reportedly dropping by approximately 2.5 meters annually, a trend that threatens the long-term sustainability of the region’s agricultural sector (TÜBİTAK, 2023). Several interrelated factors have driven this transition. Globalization has played a major role, as Türkiye increasingly supplies corn-based animal feed and dairy products to European and Middle Eastern markets, making these commodities economically attractive for producers (ITC, 2023). Simultaneously, government subsidies and irrigation development programs have favored water-intensive crops, inadvertently accelerating aquifer depletion and environmental degradation (World Bank, 2023).

Climate change has further compounded these challenges. Annual rainfall in Konya has declined by 15% since 2000, reducing the reliability of rain-fed systems and making wheat farming more vulnerable to seasonal droughts and crop failures (MGM, 2023). As a result, farmers are increasingly opting for crops and systems perceived as more profitable or secure, despite their unsustainable water demands. This transformation underscores the urgent need for a policy realignment toward climate-resilient and water-efficient agricultural practices.

Ecological & Economic Consequences

The rapid agricultural transition in Central Anatolia, particularly in Konya Province, has triggered serious ecological and economic consequences, threatening the region’s long-term sustainability. Over-irrigation and unsustainable farming practices have led to widespread soil degradation. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 2023), salinization now affects approximately 28% of Konya’s arable land, rendering it less productive and more vulnerable to erosion. Simultaneously, intensive groundwater extraction to support water-intensive crops like corn have dramatically depleted aquifers. In 1990, most wells in Konya reached depths of 50 meters; today, over 90% are deeper than 150 meters, reflecting a drastic drop in water tables (DSI, 2023). The situation has also affected key natural ecosystems, Lake Tuz, one of Türkiye’s largest saline lakes and a biodiversity hotspot, has lost 60% of its volume since 2000 due to shrinking inflows and agricultural withdrawals (WWF-Türkiye, 2023).

Economically, these environmental shifts have created vulnerabilities. Türkiye’s heavy reliance on livestock and corn-based feed has led to increased dependence on imports. As of 2023, 60% of corn used in livestock feed is imported, escalating production costs and undermining national food security (TOBB, 2023). Meanwhile, wheat, a strategic crop for national self-sufficiency, has suffered due to declining cultivation and shifting policy priorities. Wheat imports rose from 3.8 million tons in 2010 to 5.2 million tons in 2023 (USDA, 2023), indicating an erosion of food sovereignty.

A case study from the Konya Agricultural Master Plan (2023) highlights these structural challenges. While Konya accounts for 63.8% of Türkiye’s cultivated area, only 17% of its farmland is irrigated, and just 20.7% of that is effectively watered due to infrastructure limitations. Over 82% of the land is under continuous cultivation, often through monocropping systems that deplete soil nutrients. Simultaneously, pastures and forests, essential for ecosystem balance, are in decline. Together, these trends expose the fragility of the current agricultural model and the urgent need for reform.

Policy Failures & Unsustainable Practices

Türkiye’s agricultural challenges in regions like Central Anatolia are rooted not only in environmental pressures but also in critical policy failures and unsustainable practices. Government subsidies have disproportionately favored water-intensive crops such as corn and sugar beet, with ₺4.5 billion allocated annually (Ministry of Treasury, 2023). In contrast, wheat, traditionally a drought-resilient staple, is supported with only ₺1.2 billion, despite being more suitable for the arid climate of provinces like Konya (TZOB, 2023). These subsidy imbalances have incentivized a shift away from climate-resilient crops, accelerating groundwater depletion and soil degradation.

Moreover, agricultural policymaking remains overly centralized, neglecting Türkiye’s diverse climatic zones. For instance, Konya receives just 300 mm of annual rainfall compared to over 1,200 mm in the Black Sea region (MGM, 2023). Yet, nationwide subsidies are applied uniformly, failing to account for local resource constraints and crop suitability. This one-size-fits-all approach promotes inefficiencies and undermines regional sustainability.

Groundwater overuse further exacerbates the crisis. Nearly 40% of Konya’s water is extracted illegally through unauthorized wells, with weak enforcement and minimal penalties allowing this trend to persist unchecked (DSI, 2023).

Addressing these issues requires a comprehensive policy overhaul. Shifting back to drought-resilient crops like wheat and barley through targeted subsidies and agroecological methods, such as crop rotation and conservation tillage, can help restore soil health. Expanding drip irrigation, currently used by only 8% of farmers (TÜİK, 2023), should be prioritized with tax incentives and technical support to reach 30% adoption by 2030. Additionally, traditional rainwater harvesting systems like karez should be rehabilitated to replenish groundwater reserves.

Policies must be decentralized and tailored to basin-level conditions. For instance, arid zones like Konya should receive support for dryland farming and sheep pastoralism, while wetter regions can focus on crops like tea, hazelnuts, and corn. Farmer education, including mobile advisory services and women-led cooperatives, can drive the adoption of climate-smart practices. Lastly, institutional reforms are vital, banning new wells in critical zones and introducing water pricing mechanisms will promote sustainable water use and ensure long-term agricultural viability.

Conclusion

The transformation of agricultural production in Türkiye’s Central Anatolian Closed Basin represents both a cautionary tale and a call to action. While the shift from traditional wheat-sheep systems to corn-cattle farming brought short-term economic gains, it has imposed heavy ecological costs and heightened long-term vulnerabilities. Groundwater levels are plunging, salinization is spreading, and biodiversity is eroding, threatening not only the environmental stability of the region but also its capacity to sustain livelihoods. Konya, once hailed as Türkiye’s breadbasket, now teeters on the edge of ecological collapse due to policy decisions that favored high-yield but water-intensive crops in one of the most arid parts of the country.

This crisis reveals the urgent need for policy realignment rooted in climate resilience, regional differentiation, and ecological stewardship. Uniform subsidy models that ignore local rainfall patterns and resource limits are no longer tenable. Sustainable alternatives, such as incentivizing drought-resistant wheat and barley, expanding water-efficient irrigation, reviving traditional groundwater recharge systems, and integrating rotational livestock systems, must be prioritized.

Empowering farmers with localized knowledge, affordable technology, and market incentives for climate-smart practices will be crucial. With decisive action and regionally tailored solutions, Türkiye can reclaim its agricultural sustainability and secure the future of food production in its heartland, before the costs become truly irreversible.

References: DSI: FAO; TÜİK; WWF-Türkiye; World Bank; TÜBİTAK; ITC; MGM; TOBB; USDA; Konya Agricultural Master Plan; Ministry of Treasury; TZOB

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

The writer is affiliated with the Department of Agricultural Economics, Selcuk University, Konya-Türkiye and can be reached at mdirek@selcuk.edu.tr

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