Rising Climate Uncertainty Threatens Sustainable Crop Production

Climate events, even those not statistically extreme, can have profound impacts when they coincide with critical crop stages, leaving farmers with limited capacity to cope. Lack of resources to effectively respond within shorter time period further increases the vulnerability. The sensitivity of crops to varying climates underscores the intricate link between climate hazards and food security. Unlike large extreme events like floods and long-term droughts, which cause immediate devastation, frequent but less intense climatic changes cause productivity losses and increase cost to cope with such hazards (hear stress, seasonal drought, unseasonal rains, windstorm, hails etc.,) and gradually erode household income, posing long-term threats to sustainable agriculture and food security.

Indeed, vulnerability to climate variability emerges as a significant factor influencing livelihood resilience. As climate patterns continue to shift, crop production faces escalating risks, affecting everything from start of growing seasons like limited moisture for sowing to pest infestations infestation from changes in humidity and temperature or sterility and grain shriveling from sudden increase in temperature for at later crop stages. These changes, occurring across diverse agro-ecologies and farming systems, require a nuanced approach to understanding and managing climate risks.

It is now well recognized across the Climate Change R&D practitioners that there is no need to get prepare for the future climate hazards if we are unable to cope with present day challenges. Despite this pressing need, there's a persistent lack of preparedness for these challenges, emphasizing the critical need for effective coping and adaptation strategies. Farmers' adaptive capacity is rooted in past experiences, and adaptation often starts with their responses to current day to day hazards at the production level. Yet, the complexity of in-season coping strategies, which require rapid responses and often incur extra costs, presents significant challenges

As we grapple with the diverse impacts of climate change, particularly in Pakistan and other developing countries alike, understanding and mitigating these effects become paramount. In Pakistan, where agriculture employs a significant portion of the labor force and contributes substantially to the GDP, the challenges posed by climate change are particularly acute. With the majority of agricultural land located in the Indus Basin, the country faces a confluence of climate change impacts, population growth, limited agricultural investment, and water stress. These factors threaten the food security of millions and underscore the urgent need for adaptive strategies tailored to the region's specific vulnerabilities.

Pakistan, with its heavy dependence on agriculture, faces unique vulnerabilities exacerbated by climate extremes as well as from day-to-day changes due to variability in climatic factors. Even minor deviation from the threshold limits at critical crop stages may lead to heavy losses for example a short duration of only one-hour high temperature at rice reproductive stage may cause sterility in rice causing up to 25 percent yield decline. Yield loss in wheat due to heat and moisture stress may lead changes in yield from 10 to 30 percent and false spring in fruit plants which are now becoming common phenomena may lead to heavy losses. A study was conducted by social scientists from the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council in collaboration with Wageningen University and Research. This study evaluated the farm level impact of in-season hazards on yield of various crops across different cropping systems in the Indus Basin, finding a yield loss varying by 10–30% for 43% of the sample cases and 31–50% for another 39% of the sample cases. The most severe losses occurred due to the compounding effect of two hazards in one crop season or when both crops in a multi-crop rotation were affected simultaneously. With increase in such risks due to climate variability the Indus Basin, the heart of Pakistan's agricultural activity, is particularly at risk, threatening the food security of millions.

To effectively address these challenges, a growing body of literature advocates for a systematic categorization of climate risks at the sub-system level. This categorization would help identify suitable coping strategies tailored to specific crop stages and enable farmers to adapt to changing climate patterns. Adaptation efforts must consider the socioeconomic and biophysical diversity inherent in agricultural systems, ensuring that interventions resonate with farmers' coping experiences and adaptive capacity. As evidence of accelerated global warming mounts, urgent action is needed to safeguard crop production and ensure food security for vulnerable populations worldwide. By systematically categorizing climate risks and implementing tailored coping and adaptation strategies, countries like Pakistan can reduce the impacts of climate variability on agriculture, safeguarding livelihoods and promoting sustainable development. In conclusion, proactive measures must be taken at the regional and production system level to address the complex challenges posed by climate change and safeguard the future of agriculture and food security.

Please note that the views expressed in this article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of any organization.

Hassnain Shah is Director, Social Sciences Division, Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, Islamabad, Pakistan

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